Nigerian authorities struggle to engage with protestors, reform and alleviate risk

A prison break occurred today in Benin, Edo state, where people have been protesting for #EndSARS. According to the police, a mob attacked its stations and the prison, taking advantage of current unrest. In response, Edo State Governor, Godwin Obaseki, has declared an indefinite full-day curfew in the state. There is unrest in other states where protests are also happening. Armed groups attacked protesters at the central bank headquarters in Abuja and thugs attacked policemen in one location in Lagos today. Traffic is blocked in parts of both cities and the traffic restrictions have disrupted some business operations.

Significance: In the first week of October, police allegedly pushed a man from a moving vehicle in Delta State, southern Nigeria, leading to protests against abuses by the federal police’s Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS). Youth demonstrations began outside the state parliament in Lagos, but have spread to other parts of the country driven by popular anger about police corruption and brutality. This is especially the case in southern states where President Muhammadu Buhari (from northern Katsina) is perceived to be governing poorly. Although demonstrators lack a central leadership structure, they have effectively articulated demands around an end to SARS and wider police reform.  Government has made some concessions already.

Inspector General of Police Mohammed Adamu announced the dissolution of SARS, plans for psychological assessment of its officers and an independent investigation of abuses going forward. Meanwhile, states such as Anambra and Lagos have begun a probe into the federal police commands in their jurisdiction and Senate President Ahmed Lawan and Speaker Femi Gbajabiamila have trailed further reform. Those conciliatory steps have not yet restored confidence. They have been accompanied by more ominous statements. For example, army has said it will act ‘decisively’ if required and Information Minister, Lai Mohammed, warned last week that the situation was turning to anarchy and that the government would take ‘firm steps’.

Conclusion: Communication between the two sides will likely continue to be strained given a lack of trust in the government and the absence of defined leadership in the movement. Campaigners refuse to engage with the government, which could protract unrest and federal and state governments are unprepared for police reform under the current federal system. The federal government manages the police, but states are now being asked to contribute to the reform process. Legal and fiscal constraints will impair the outcome of this improvised cooperation.

Meanwhile, President Buhari, backed by a northern political establishment that wants him to be conservative rather than reformative, will likely maintain his customary aloof stance. This lack of cohesion between the south and the north will draw back any security reform.

The last uprising in Nigeria in 2012 was finally put down using the army. The government understands this option could further escalate the crisis, but suppression is still a strong possibility. Soldiers have already been deployed to protest sites in Abuja, and Amnesty International says 10 people have died in the country during this upheaval as police meet protesters with tear gas and gunfire.

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