Magufuli Pushes for Second Term Amid Tense Political Climate Today in Tanzania

Tanzanians choose their next president and MPs today under unusual circumstances. The choice is essentially between the incumbent President John Magufuli alongside the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) and the opposition coalition Chadema, led by Tundu Lissu, an MP running for president for the first time. Strict media regulations are in force, election observers such as the EU have been locked out and opposition parties say the electoral commission has unduly disqualified some of their parliamentary candidates. Local civil society groups such as Tanzania Elections Watch have all but written off the process as rigged in favour of the CCM.

Main findings

Magufuli, a career politician who has held a series of ministerial positions since the 1990s, will be touting economic stability in his first term. The economy has grown by more than 5% per annum over the last five years (pre-COVID) and a flagship 2,000km railway to the capital Dar es Salaam exemplifies the government’s focus on infrastructure. For his supporters, Magufuli’s resolve to claim back unpaid taxes retrospectively amounting to USD190 billion from Acacia Mining for instance, exemplifies a brand of leadership which is bold and uncompromising. But for international business, this narrative has seemed hostile and the low points in his relationship with foreign partners have been met with dips in foreign direct investment (FDI). Yet Magufuli has also demonstrated an ability to bring companies onside – inviting partners to develop Tanzania’s offshore gas sector is one such example. For the next five years, Magufuli promises a dynamic economy, in which food security, improved healthcare, education and sanitation are priorities.

 For the opposition, Magufuli’s administration has been marred by a drain on democracy with the likes of Human Rights Watch saying that the country’s human rights record has “deteriorated” since he came to office. Indeed, Lissu is running on a promise to restore civil liberties squeezed by the Magufuli government, made all the more pertinent in view of the controlled climate in which the polls are taking place. Indeed, just yesterday, reports emerged that at least nine people lost their lives to police open fire in Zanzibar, after questioning the veracity of the electoral process. The police force has denied this. Chadema also alleges that two other people were reportedly killed in Nyamongo, northeastern Tanzania, by local ruling party officials during an opposition campaign rally. The UN has issued a statement expressing concern about the “shrinking” democratic space and “worrying reports of intimidation, harassment….against political opponents”. 

In 2015, an UKAWA opposition coalition including Chadema rallied behind a single presidential candidate Edward Lowassa, who went on to win 40% of the votes partly because of that cohesion. Opposition parties are now competing in a more hostile system, but it is also more complicated now because they do not have the level of collaboration that they had in 2015. Even Lowassa himself has decamped to Magufuli’s CCM. The CCM won 99% of votes when local council polls were held in November 2019. Chadema boycotted those polls with the claim that the electoral commission had treated its candidates unfairly. 

 Conclusion

With the power of incumbency behind him, Magufuli will be the likely victor in the presidential elections, yet the opposition has already shown that it cannot be taken for granted. The tensions which have been displayed in the recent build-up to polling day contrasts with the “peaceful and orderly” description of the 2015 polls by the UN at that time.  Tanzania’s constitution does not allow election outcomes to be challenged in court, and results are final after the electoral commission announces them, which heightens tensions at this juncture. The clamping down on media freedoms and the reduced visibility of the situation from the outside is disconcerting, yet the hope is that the security forces will heed the calls to “show restraint”, as expressed by US Ambassador to Tanzania, Donald Wright, who has been “alarmed” by reports of bloodshed.

 A likely Magufuli win means an incline towards continuity. Continuity of a centralised leadership style and an anti-neo-colonialist approach to business, but an approach which will be nuanced by resistance from a business community, with a choice. 

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