“A great tree has fallen”: Ghana Mourns Former President Jerry Rawlings

Ghana’s former president, Flt. Lt. Jerry John Rawlings passed away in the early hours of Thursday morning, reportedly having contracted COVID-19. Rawlings was the founder of the centre-left National Democratic Congress (NDC), Ghana’s current principal opposition party, and previously led the country for a spell following a coup in 1979 and then again from 1981-2001. Despite almost 20 years out of power and the controversies of his time in office, JJ Rawling’s passing leaves deep permutations across the country.

Significance - Ghana Constitution and policy orthodoxy

The Fourth Republic under which Ghana currently stands was ushered in by the 1992 elections in which Rawlings transitioned from military to civilian rule. This and Ghana’s first peaceful handover of power from incumbent to opposition in 2001 are signature features of his political legacy but not the only ones.

Despite undeniable authoritarian acts carried out under his 1981-1992 Provisional National Defence Council (PNDC) military administration , the impact that Rawlings had on the country is appreciated by most.

Following the failure of the initial PNDC economic transformation policies, Rawlings’ government took Ghana into an IMF Structural Adjustment Programme in 1983, making him an author of much of today’s economic policy orthodoxy. Even strong dissenters of his have told us today that “under Jerry [as he was commonly known] that was when Ghana worked best.”

Outlook - factionalism and general elections

With general elections in Ghana only four weeks away the two main candidates, incumbent president Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo of the NPP and former president John Mahama of the NDC have suspended their campaigns.

There will likely be a degree of sympathy vote that will be split between the NDC and the party of Rawlings’ wife, Nana Konadu Agyeman Rawlings (herself a presidential aspirant in the December poll), the National Democratic Party (NDP). However, we don’t foresee this changing the material outcome of the polls: the baseline forecast envisages President Akufo-Addo re-elected with a reduced NPP parliamentary majority.

The longer-term implications for the NDC may be more grave. It was clear that Rawlings was not an ardent supporter of Mahama but he reserved his harshest criticisms for closed fora and often used his authority to bring dissenters back in line with party policies. Without the party leader present to enforce unity and integrity, the chance for creeping factionalism to take hold will be increased. Unlikely to be witnessed before the December 7th vote, if as expected, the NPP emerges victorious, the post-mortem and associated fallout may prove devastating.

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