Three Key Things: Burkina Faso Elections 2020
With other more contested elections including the US, alongside the ongoing travails of Covid-19, the vote in Burkina Faso has been greatly overshadowed. It is scheduled to take place this Sunday (22 November) and will be held in a tense security atmosphere as terrorist elements continue attacks.
1. Candidates - Scenario Planning
There is a wide field of 13 candidates that have been approved by the electoral commission (CENI). The narrow favourite is the incumbent, Roch Kabore of the Mouvement du Peuple pour le Progrès (MPP) – despite a worsening security situation, he has made some progress on improving infrastructure; increased some social provisions and the country has escaped the worst effects of the coronavirus pandemic, registering just over 2,600 total cases. Eddie Komboigo represents the Congrès pour la Démocratie et le Progrès (CDP) of former president Blaise Compaore[1]. He campaigns primarily on a ticket of improving the security situation by retooling the defence forces and opening dialogue with the militant groups. The lasting support for Compaore and the CDP are key reasons for his consideration as a contender. Candidate for the main opposition party Union pour le Progrès et le Changement (UPC) is Zephirine Diabre. Runner up in the 2015 polls, he is highly critical of the failings of Kabore in his first term but has also produced a voluminous manifesto that promises massive social interventions, job creation for the youth and agricultural and industrial revolution
2. Security - Terrorism threat
An ongoing radical Islamist insurgency has destabilised much of the country and accounted for at least 2,000 deaths in 2019 alone. The vote will necessarily be dominated by security concerns. There was even a brief suggestion that the poll may be delayed due to the latest attack that killed 14 soldiers on 11th November. A law brought in in August allows the CENI to certify the election even though some areas will not be able to vote due to security concerns. These excluded areas mean that hundreds of thousands of voters will (legally) be disenfranchised, as well as thousands of other internally displaced persons who had to flee their homes and do not have the requisite identification to register to vote. Whilst party political violence is not expected, the threat of electoral activity being a target for terrorist actors is significant.
3. Gold mining - Rival hopes
An attack on the Boungou operation in November 2019 (then) owned by Semafo that killed 39 workers halted operations there for almost a year but such raids on private installations are few and far between. Despite the worsening security situation and the impending election, gold producers in Burkina Faso are continuing largely uninterrupted. This is partly to recoup losses that were incurred during shutdowns caused by Covid-19 but also to capitalise on the continually buoyant price of the precious metal on the international markets. With export revenues reaching USD2.7 billion in 2018 and tax revenues of over USD160 million, the government has realised the importance of maintaining output, is working closely with mining companies on security plans and has provided specialist military units to provide infrastructure[2]. What will be of concern for producers is the possibility of dialogue with jihadist militants. It would not be unreasonable to assume that they may ask for a share in mining revenues or even a role in protecting infrastructure as part of any eventual agreement. Watching with particular interest will be Endeavour Mining who have recently acquired all assets of Teranga Gold for USD1.6 billion – this now means that Endeavour has five active mines in Burkina Faso.
Outlook - Likelihood of dispute
The vote will be closely contested, and a second-round runoff is a real possibility, despite an expected low turnout. There is a high likelihood of dispute. Opposition parties have already raised concerns over CENI’s plans to announce results within one day of voting and, per usual, there are rumours of plans to rig the election.
Another argument that may be used to contest the eventual is the August 2020 change in the electoral law – opposition parties feel that this move disproportionately harms them as those in the affected areas are more likely to vote for the opposition as they feel abandoned by the current administration.
There is a longer-term risk of internal instability should Kabore emerge victorious and the security situation continues to deteriorate. With other candidates suggesting alternate strategies for combatting the security challenges, the status quo offered by the incumbent may lead to popular consternation. Recent events in Mali should serve to show that, regardless of the complexities of a security threat, a restive population will not simply sit down and accept living under threat, especially when the threat is impinging on their right to self-determination.
[1] Compaore was ousted by a coup in 2014 having ruled for 27 years and that led to the 2015 elections that brought Kabore to power.
[2] French troops in the country to fight Islamist militants are also assisting with security for mining companies
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