"Four More" (or Less): Ghana’s Incumbent President Re-Elected.
Ghana’s incumbent President, Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo of the New Patriotic Party (NPP), has been re-elected to a second term in office. His victory with 51.30%[1]of the vote was announced by the chair of Ghana’s Electoral Commission on Wednesday evening, almost 24 hours after the initial deadline had passed. His main challenger, John Dramani Mahama of the National Democratic Congress (NDC), who garnered 47.36%, has rejected the result. The results of the parliamentary polls have not been fully certified though no party has yet secured a majority. Many estimates have the parties almost neck and neck, although we are awaiting official confirmation.
Main Findings - How it Happened
The voting process on 7th December was largely deemed to be fair, transparent, and peaceful. Isolated incidents of election-related violence were witnessed, that have resulted in at least five reported deaths, including in known hotspots such as the Odododiodioo constituency in Accra. Whilst this is tragic and deeply unfortunate, it does not represent the overall manner in which the election was conducted.
The Electoral Commission seemed on track to meet its target of declaring the results within 24 hours as provisional tallies from polling stations and constituencies came in early. However, “unexpected rains'' and issues in several constituencies caused a delay in the final declaration by the EC chair, Jean Mensa. The initially unexplained delays gave rise to accusations of results being altered leading to NDC supporters congregating at EC premises around the country to “protect their vote.” Following the formal declaration, these crowds dispersed though other people gathered outside Mahama’s office and were burning tyres and firing weapons; some journalists were also attacked.
In his victory speech, Akufo-Addo said that the result (particularly parliamentary) showed the need for unity between the NPP and the NDC, calling for the two to “unite, join hands, stand shoulder to shoulder and work hard to place Ghana where she ought to be.” At the time of writing, Mahama has yet to respond to the results. Speaking on behalf of the party was the NDC’s leader in parliament, Haruna Iddrisu. He said that the party “rejects the presidential result without any reservation” and that “Ghana’s democracy has come under severe attack and needs some rescue, urgently.”
Of note is the significant swing in the parliamentary results. During the last administration, the NPP enjoyed a parliamentary majority of 63 seats in the 275-seat chamber. Provisional results have neither party yet reaching the number needed for a majority. Aside from the swing between parties, there have been MPs who lost their primary elections and some others have retired, meaning that there will be 113 new faces in parliament, 41% of the total. This suggests that there was a high occurrence of what is known as ‘skirt and blouse’ voting (where a person votes one way for a parliamentary candidate and another for the president). This indicates a maturing of the electorate who appears to be voting based more on issues and less on historic party affiliation.
Outlook
For the avoidance of an escalation in tensions and the rise in security risk, the most important action that needs to take place is a call for calm from the leadership of all parties as well as a more pacified tone of rhetoric, particularly by the NDC, whose foot-soldiers are aggrieved at the result. There is a due process that should be followed and the sooner that is initiated, the more likely calm heads will prevail. Ghana will miss the influence of elder statesmen such as Kofi Annan and former president Jerry John Rawlings. At times of post-electoral tension, both had been known to privately counsel both victors and losers to ensure that peace and due process prevailed. This is the first election Ghana has held without them - they passed away in 2018 and November of this year, respectively.
The outcome of the parliamentary balance will be pivotal. Parliamentary votes in Ghana are exclusively along party lines so any party with a majority, no matter how small, will be able to either pass or veto any motion. Whether the NDC or the NPP emerges with a majority, there will need to be genuine and constructive collaboration between them to ensure an effective implementation of government policy because as it currently stands, it doesn’t look like any single party will have more than a majority of few seats.
As the political dynamics rapidly evolve, one person to watch is Andrew Amoako Asiamah, a former NPP MP who ran as an independent and won in his Fomena constituency. If the outcome is as close as expected or even tied, it will be his vote in parliament, as the only MP representing neither the NPP nor the NDC, that could tip the balance for or against any motion brought by either of the two main parties. Though he has pledged his continued allegiance to the NPP despite having been expelled from the party for standing as an independent, there are no guarantees and we could see the NPP working hard to appease him (and his constituency) in order to bring him ‘onside’.
In order to retain any legitimacy, the NDC must formally file a case at the Supreme Court - there is a 21 day limit in which they can do so - and present all evidence they have that counters the official declaration. While this will protect peace in the country, it may cause significant disruption to government business – a similar petition brought by the NPP in 2012 took nine months to resolve and had a significant impact on both investor confidence and government’s decision-making ability. An amendment to the electoral adjudication law has said that the Supreme Court must make its pronouncement no more than 42 days after a petition is filed. However, this means it can still spill well into 2021 and, crucially, not likely before the scheduled inauguration date of 20th January.
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[1] At the time of writing, one constituency was still outstanding. Even if Mahama were to win all votes there, it would not be enough to overturn Akufo-Addo’s lead.