Liberia’s makeshift coalitions compete in midterm polls and opposition gets the upper hand
The senatorial elections and referendum held in Liberia on 8 December were largely peaceful but have emphasised the limited political capital of President George Weah and his Congress for Democratic Change (CDC).
The opposition, Coalition of Political Parties (CPP)[1], will keep its majority having won six of 14 seats compared to three for the ruling CDC. The opposition’s win includes the Senate seat for Montserrado, which is President George Weah’s political base and the most populous county in the country.
Meanwhile, most votes for the referendum (some are still being tallied) were improperly cast and declared invalid. The Weah government backed the ‘yes’ vote for proposed constitutional amendments, including one to reduce the presidential term length from six to five years. That required two-thirds of referendum votes.
Significance - oscillations in political power
The position of the ruling CDC coalition has significantly weakened since it won the presidency in 2017. This is the result of infighting over the distribution of political power – exemplified by the wedge between Weah and Vice President Jewel Howard-Taylor. By consequence, the coalition did not go into these legislative elections united. Disputes among its constituent parties disrupted primaries and divided supporters. Meanwhile, the opposition coalition CPP has been building cohesion and making inroads into CDC bases, benefitting from popular discontent about the economy and fissure in the CDC camp.
Moreover, these elections and referendum were held after a flawed voter registration exercise. There was prevalent ‘trucking’, which refers to a practice where a candidate tries to inflate the voter roll in their constituency by bringing in voters from other constituencies and paying them to vote for the candidate. This is particularly disappointing since the electoral law was amended in 2014 to prevent a reoccurrence of the fraud and electoral disputes seen in previous elections. Unfortunately, neither the National Electoral Commission (NEC) and or other political actors have had the technical capacity to enforce the law.
As for the referendum, it had little support outside the Weah administration. Civil society, including the Liberian National Bar Association and Council of Churches, opposed it saying voters had not been properly educated about the issues. There were also concerns that Weah might be trying to manipulate the presidential term length so he could run twice more under a new constitution – mimicking recent events among Liberia’s neighbours Ivory Coast and Guinea whose presidents recently got a third term. Some of Weah’s allies such as Senator Prince Johnson have suggested that Weah will be supported if he nurses the same ambition.
Conclusion - Internal cohesion and Liberia’s 2023 general elections
Currently, Weah does not command enough influence over the opposition and over state institutions, nor does he enjoy sufficient popular backing, to extend his time in office. Proposals to change the constitution through this referendum will fail without the approval of two-thirds of registered voters.
And yet, formed this year, the CPP has not developed a coherent legislative agenda as the opposition coalition and there is little dispute between CPP and CDC over lawmaking. On that note, the composition of parliament will not significantly affect the course of lawmaking or affect government efficiency.
The constituent parties in the opposition coalition, CPP, are loosely bound by political ambition and are highly prone to fracture as a unit. So are constituent parties in the ruling coalition CDC. Both makeshift coalitions will try to strengthen internal cohesion before the 2023 general elections. This test of cohesion will be decisive in the buildup to those elections, and CPP appears to have the upper hand.
[1] Alliance of four parties – the Unity Party (UP), the Liberty Party (LP), the All Liberian Party (ALP) and Alternative National Congress (ANC) – and created in early 2019
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