Three Key Issues: Ghana’s December Elections

Ghana heads to the polls on 7th December to vote for both presidential and parliamentary candidates. As usual, the battle is expected to be between the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) and the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC), represented by president Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo and former president John Dramani Mahama respectively.

1. New Voters’ Register

Three separate cases have been brought against the electoral commission (EC) over its decision to compile a new voters’ register. One by the opposition NDC has been merged with that of a private citizen and another has been brought by an NDC MP[1]. In this joint case, the Supreme Court has ruled that the EC is allowed to carry on with the compilation of the register as planned and without the use of the old voter’s ID card (see below).

The fidelity of the voter register is an issue that comes up in every election cycle but is very rarely as hotly debated as it has been this time round. In addition to the NDC, academics[2], think tanks[3] and the National House of Chiefs[4] have all raised concerns about the process. Their concerns fall primarily in to three main categories:

The criteria being used for registration. The electoral commission has said that the only acceptable identity documents for registration will be a Ghanaian passport or the new ‘Ghana Card’ that the government is slowly rolling out. The former voter’s card is/was the primary state identity document for most Ghanaians, and this will not be accepted.
The cost: estimates vary with the highest being around USD150 million. Government is struggling for revenue in the face of coronavirus and many are questioning the justification for the expenditure in the current climate.
The timing: There are concerns that delays brought about by coronavirus mean that the registration process is taking place much later in the year than would otherwise be the case and that this will limit the time given for public display and scrutiny of the new register. The EC has already said that there will not be time to carry out the transfer of votes[5], especially vital as coronavirus has restricted the movement of people.

The NDC (led by Mahama) has now said that all their members should make sure that they take part in the ongoing registration exercise[6]. Having lost the case at the Supreme Court, Mahama launched a scathing attack on the NPP and the EC saying: “this represents the handiwork of a desperate incumbent that on account of its very poor performance in government sees its political survival only through the prism of manipulation of the electoral process to exclude a section of Ghanaians who they suspect may not renew their mandate at the polls.” In other words, this case and the whole question of the voter register, underline the lack of consensus between Ghana’s two principal political traditions concerning the activities of the EC and the Supreme Court.

The current EC chairman was appointed by President Nana Addo Dankwa Akuffo Addo in 2018 and portrayed from the outset as an NPP partisan by leading opposition figures. That narrative has not diminished over time. Instead, the same rhetoric is threaded through the NDC’s take on the EC administration of the 2018 referendum on new regions, its response to violence in the Ayawaso West bye-election that same year and alleged inadequate usage of the inter-party advisory committee (IPAC) subsequently.

2. Fractions within the NPP

There has been much made of the fact that the NPP lost 42 sitting MPs during its primary elections – this is 25% of their representation in parliament. It speaks to some of the divisions within the party (see recent pronouncements from firebrand NPP MP and major financier, Kennedy Agyapong[7][8]). It has also brought to light the systemic bribery in the primary (and overall) voting process with delegates being given bicycles, household electronics and cash among others to vote. Unfortunately for some, this has come to light as they lost their bids for election and are now trying to recoup their losses, one high profile case has seen the national executive of the party seek to step in, threatening to expel one losing aspirant if he does so[9]. The NPP has been forced to deny allegations that it attempted to favour sitting MPs while admitting there were circumstances in which it was decided some should go unopposed[10]. It may be politically significant if the aggrieved MPs stand as independents.

3. Emerging Campaign Promises

Despite their rival traditions, as usual, we can expect ideological differences between the two main parties to be slim; this will be primarily a popularity contest. For now, the ruling NPP does not yet seem to be in full campaign mode so has yet to make any campaign promises though, as the government in power, these tend to take the form of contract signing or major policy announcements. In this era of Covid-19, the major announcement has been for the construction of 88 district hospitals and 6 regional hospitals[11]. In contrast, the Mahama campaign has released 18 promises, which it claims it will undertake if elected into government. There is a particular focus on healthcare and education with honourable mentions for the fight against corruption and infrastructural development[12].

Outlook

Currently, the baseline forecast for the 2020 election result is one wherein the NPP retains the presidency with a reduced majority in parliament due to the infighting amongst parliamentary aspirants. The population is generally very impressed with the Akufo-Addo administration’s management of the coronavirus pandemic, which will likely count for a lot come polling day. However, six months is a long time in politics. Ghana is still at risk from further spread of the virus. At the time of writing, Ghana had had almost 15,500 confirmed cases of the disease, up from around 10,000 two weeks ago. The disease is accelerating (see here).

To learn more about any of the issues discussed, please don’t hesitate to get in touch: questions@songhaiadvisory.com

[1] https://www.myjoyonline.com/news/national/ec-sued-for-the-third-time-over-new-voters-register-compilation/

[2] https://www.universityworldnews.com/post.php?story=20200611075028349

[3] https://findbiometrics.com/biometrics-news-ghanaian-think-tank-imani-against-ec-over-new-biometric-voter-registration-system-031103/

[4] https://www.modernghana.com/news/1006124/make-sure-no-ghanaian-is-disenfranchised-house.html

[5] https://www.ghanaweb.com/GhanaHomePage/NewsArchive/Ghanaians-react-to-EC-ruling-out-transfer-of-votes-in-2020-elections-981079

[6] https://www.modernghana.com/news/1011203/come-out-and-register-whether-ec-compiles-new-regi.html

[7] https://www.ghanaweb.com/GhanaHomePage/NewsArchive/Kufuor-sacked-me-from-his-house-over-Alan-s-candidature-Kennedy-Agyapong-recounts-988474

[8] https://www.ghanaweb.com/GhanaHomePage/entertainment/Adwoa-Sarfo-doesn-t-take-chop-money-from-me-Kennedy-Agyapong-987121

[9] https://www.modernghana.com/news/1011405/npp-primaries-return-bicycles-to-delegates-or.html

[10] https://www.ghanaweb.com/GhanaHomePage/NewsArchive/NPP-Primaries-Sammi-Awuku-denies-party-s-intervention-to-retain-sitting-MPs-988357

[11] https://allafrica.com/stories/202006010366.html