Ouattara: The Elephant in the Elephant’s Room

L’elephant Cote d’Ivoire is rapidly moving towards its scheduled 2020 presidential elections (31 October). The deadline for aspirants to submit their candidacy is 31 August and the burning question remains whether incumbent president Alassane Ouattara will stand for a third term following a formal request for him to do so from his party, the Rassemblement des houphouëtistes pour la démocratie et la paix (RHDP). Ouattara finds himself in this conundrum due to the tragic and sudden death of his prime minister and 2020 RHDP candidate, Amadou Gon Coulibaly, on 8 July. Despite the formal RHDP request, Ouattara has delayed any announcement on his candidature, seemingly out of respect for Coulibaly. The president says he will not make any announcement until the conclusion of the traditional Muslim mourning period, after 18 August.

To Stand or Not to Stand

Although Ouattara declared that he would not stand in March of this year, he had previously stated that his decision would rest on that of his principal political adversaries, Henri Konan Bedie and Laurent Gbagbo. If either of these two entered the race, then Ouattara would also. However, subsequent to Ouattara’s March 2020 decision, Bedie announced his candidacy for the Parti Démocratique de la Côte d'Ivoire — Rassemblement Démocratique Africain (PDCI-RDA). Gbagbo was asked by a faction of the Front populaire ivoirien (FPI)[1] to be their candidate but was unable to secure travel documents to return from Belgium where he is awaiting the outcome of an appeal against his acquittal at the ICC. Accordingly, the FPI has selected their former candidate, Pascal Affi N’Guessan despite his resounding loss to Ouattara in 2015.

Neither N’Guessan, Bedie or anyone else would easily take Ouattara to a second round if he runs.  Indeed, this election is more about continuity and stability than it is personal popularity (usually a determining factor over policy). Between 2011 and end-2019, Cote d’Ivoire grew at over 7% per annum, reformed the cocoa sector and took steps toward greater local beneficiation. Add to this the agreed CFA franc reforms and well-received mitigation of the worst effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. His record is not unblemished. See for example, various public sector industrial action over the course of his premiership. Nevertheless, Ouattara is protective of his legacy, as was apparent in his grooming of Coulibaly to take over from him. Now, the president vacillates over a successor.

A name commonly mentioned is that of Hamed Bakoyoko, minister of defence and now Coulibaly successor prime minister. However, as loyal as Bakoyoko is to Ouattara, he is also seen as a firebrand, a quality less amenable to the French authorities whose enduring influence in Cote d’Ivoire should not be downplayed. Sources have also stated that Ouattara does not yet see enough statesman-like qualities in Bakoyoko.

What to Watch

Despite a seemingly assured victory for Ouattara if he stands, risks still abound – regarding the electoral process especially. The longer the candidate for the ruling party remains unannounced, the more credence will be given to rumours that a postponement of the polls is a real possibility. There will likely be legal and possibly civil protests if Ouattara does decide to stand. His interpretation of his own eligibility for a third term due to a new constitution coming into effect in 2016 is not shared by any of his opponents and they have already declared they see it as unconstitutional. Inevitable tests of the judiciary must be closely watched. All current members of the supreme court have been appointed under Ouattara’s administration so the assumption is that they will be favourable to his cause. Any apparent bias will be met with escalation by the opposition – whether that be protests, calls on ECOWAS, the African Union or foreign partners remains to be seen. Boycotting the election all together has been a tactic that has been used in the past as well. More will come to light with Ouatarra’s final decision.

[1] Whilst he was on trial at the ICC, a split occurred in the FPI with a faction maintaining their support for Gbagbo, calling themselves Ggabgo Ou Rien (GOR) - Gbagbo or Nothing.

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