Uganda decides in general elections after stormy buildup

Uganda is in the closing days of its third elections since the restoration of multiparty democracy in 2005/6. However, even as the Electoral Commission begins announcing results – including an unsurprising early lead in the presidential race for incumbent Yoweri Museveni – securing internal and external consensus around the process looks highly unlikely. The internet was blocked nationwide as voting took place on Thursday. There was heavy military presence in areas such as Kampala and Masaka where the opposition is strong. Although the process has progressed with relative calm, there were delays in distributing voting materials to booths and machines also malfunctioned on arrival.

Significance – Remember the primaries

There are two strong challengers against Museveni in the presidential election: Patrick Amuriat of the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) and Robert ‘Bobi Wine’ Kyagulanyi of the newly formed National Unity Party (NUP). In 2016 the FDC candidate Kizza Besigye was the face of the opposition, having run against Museveni on four occasions. This time Besigye is not on the ballot and Bobi Wine seems to have drawn more popular backing than the FDC’s Amuriat.

The ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) already commands more than two-thirds of parliament but is looking to expand that further in the legislative elections. The biggest opposition party FDC currently has less than 10% of seats. That gap in representation makes an NRM candidacy highly attractive, and it means the most competitive contests may already have taken place at NRM primaries held in 2020.

Conclusion – Security risk remains elevated

Bobi Wine will likely lead in the central region where the opposition usually performs strongly. In the national parliament he represents the Wakiso district, where Besigye won 60% of votes in 2016 and which is also the most populous in the central region after neighboring Kampala. This region has more than half the country’s urban population – with whom Bobi Wine’s charisma and the prospect of political change resonate the most.

Museveni’s electoral support spreads more broadly overall. The NRM is by far more firmly entrenched in the grassroots than any other party, notably in the countryside where more than 75% of Ugandans live. A majority of these Ugandans favour an NRM victory for the political and economic stability that the party represents in their view given Bobi Wine’s inexperience with governance. FDC will not reach its previous levels without Besigye on the ballot this time.

 The risk of post-election violence remains high, considering the deadly riots that occurred in November as state security clamped down on Bobi Wine and Amuriat’s campaigns. The losing sides in the presidential election will dispute poll results, pointing to irregular voting patterns in NRM strongholds. However, the army will put down the imminent resistance and shorten the tension span with force.

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We will be sharing more on these developments and their impact on the investment climate in the coming days.

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