Liberia opposition merger on the brink ahead of 2023 polls
In 24 months, Liberia will hold general elections in which President George Weah will hope to win a second term in office. The probability of success is bolstered by in-fighting among his adversaries. Former vice president Joseph Boakai emerged as the leader of the opposition coalition last week (October 15) but is taking charge of the Collaborating Political Parties (CPP) at a time when the coalition is on the brink of disintegrating. Despite a strong showing at the midterm senatorial elections in December 2020, there is strife among the four CPP constituent parties about managing the coalition and ultimately selecting its 2023 presidential candidate.[1] Even so, the leaders can still salvage the merger if they agree on a flagbearer by 1 December, or else it may effectively collapse and the 2023 race may be thrown open to be decided through informal alliances.
Significance – Boakai vs Cummings
The CPP promisingly began its quest to win power after it was formed last year. It won more senate seats than the ruling Coalition for Democratic Change (CDC) just months after its formation. These included seats in the ruling CDC’s strongholds Montserrado and Bong where President George Weah and Vice President Jewel Howard-Taylor come from. However, the new opposition merger has since struggled to manage the rivalry between Boakai and ex-Coca Cola executive Alexander Cummings, who ran in the 2017 presidential election when both politicians belonged to separate camps.
Cummings now accuses the other CPP leaders of covertly altering a ‘framework document’ that describes how the coalition will be run and how its presidential candidate will emerge. The validity of this document remains disputed, but an early version required the constituent parties to unanimously choose a candidate latest by 1 December this year – or otherwise hold a primary election after organising a public survey to determine the most popular candidate.[2] None of these conditions can be met without the participation of Cummings’ own party Alternative National Congress.
The efficacy of a coalition is clear from the country’s recent polls. The current president George Weah won in 2017 through a coalition of his party and two others after past failures. Boakai got 28% of votes in the first round of the 2017 election, while Cummings got 7%, suggesting that an alliance is the most probable path for the CPP to take power and for either Boakai or Cummings to outdo Weah in 2023. For now, neither politician is willing to allow the other be the CPP flagbearer. Seventy-six year-old Boakai has already been vice president for 12 years in the Ellen Sirleaf administration (2006 to 2018) and so has rejected a running mate role. And the 64-year old Cummings is also likely concerned about the prospect of being deputy in a Boakai presidency that might last 12 years[3] – before Cummings gets another chance to contest the presidency himself.
Outlook – Open contest
The CPP is highly at risk of collapse because of the discord between Boakai and Cummings, but momentum may be regained if the coalition leaders manage to jointly name a presidential candidate and running mate before the 1 December deadline. If not, the outcome of the 2023 presidential election will most likely be determined through informal alliances between individual politicians instead of parties. For example, the influential ex-rebel Prince Johnson lost out in the first round of the 2017 presidential election. Out of the race, he then struck an alliance with Weah that gave Weah the winning edge against Boakai in the second round.
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[1] The CPP constituents are the Unity Party, Alternative National Congress, Liberty Party and All Liberian Party.
[2] Collaborative Framework Document (April 2020). CPP.
[3] The presidential term in Liberia is six years and a president is eligible for two terms.
Photo: blk24ga, CC
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