Southeastern Nigeria gubernatorial election at risk
Nigeria’s ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) has postponed its campaign for the 6 November Anambra state gubernatorial election. The party announced its decision last week (2 October) after Chike Akunyili, a prominent doctor and the widower of ex-minister Dora Akunyili, was killed in the southeastern state.
Some local accounts suggest he was killed by militiamen linked to the separatist group Independent People of Biafra (IPOB), which does not want a gubernatorial election to be held in the state and has instigated acts of sabotage to broadly destabilise the southeast. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has also expressed concern for the safety of its staff given the outbreak of violence that has occurred in this state and the rest of the region where about 11% of the country’s population live.[1]
On this note, the business environment in the southeast is unstable in the short term and could be prolonged up to the 2023 elections. The authorities’ resources are stretched and political will is concentrated on power tussles more than law enforcement (See: Nigeria attacks on election facilities threaten political stability).
Significance – The state vs IPOB
Since January, unidentified militia in the southeast have carried out a series of targeted attacks in which police officers have been killed and INEC facilities have been destroyed. There is footage of armed men roaming streets and enforcing IPOB’s order that everyone in the region must stay indoors on Mondays to protest against the ongoing trial of IPOB leader Nnamdi Kanu. Bus travelers were ambushed and killed one Monday in August for purportedly violating this order.[2] Government and ruling APC figures have also been targeted – in fact, the doctor who was killed last week might have been mistaken for a government official while commuting with a police escort. Some businesses in the region are experiencing a disruption in these circumstances. (See: Businesses shut in Nigeria’s southeast over detention of separatist leader).
There is unrest in all five states in this region due to the acts of sabotage.[3] The army and police, controlled by the federal government, are unable to adequately secure lives and assets because their limited resources are being put into fighting threats in other parts of the country. President Muhammadu Buhari, from northern Katsina, is widely unpopular in this region and a large number of locals are also detached from their own political leaders and the electoral process. For instance, only 23% of registered voters in Abia turned out to vote in the state’s 2019 gubernatorial election.[4][5] The waning legitimacy of the democratic government here and weak law enforcement have allowed IPOB to quickly grow its influence while also imposing its will using violence.
Outlook – Business interruption
Peace talks helped to defuse a separate rebellion in Nigeria’s Niger Delta in 2017, but now the Buhari administration has stuck to aggressive methods and an obstacle toward peace will be its continued detention of IPOB leader Kanu. However, there may be an opportunity after Buhari completes his final term in 2023 and a new administration is formed. Business interruption risk in the southeast is elevated in the interim. The security situation in the region will be volatile and we anticipate flashpoints throughout the next 18 months in which state or political actors will be targeted to destabilise the electoral process.
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[1] Demographic statistics bulletin (2017). Nigerian Bureau of Statistics.
[2] Eight killed as IPOB’s sit-at-home order turns bloody (August 2021). Punch.
[3] Enugu, Imo, Abia, Ebonyi and Anambra.
[4] Abia state gubernatorial election results (2019). INEC.
[5] Registered voters across Nigeria (2019). Pulse.
Photo credit: Tope. A Asokere, @dynapix
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