The Gambia's President Adama Barrow embarks on second-term
President Adama Barrow has been declared the victor of presidential elections on Saturday, 4 December 2021. According to results announced by the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC), Barrow won 53% of the votes, well ahead of his closest rival Ousainou Darboe of the United Democratic Party (UDP), and drawing the deepest support in Upper River division and parts of the Central River division. Rivals are disputing the results but potential legal challenges are yet to materialise. As such, key pivot points for the risk outlook now surround the pandemic, legislative elections expected to take place in the first half of next year, planned structural reform in core sectors, and handling of Truth Reconciliation and Reparations Commission (TRRC) findings.
Significance – Competing influences
Following the announcement of results on Sunday 5 December, three opposition candidates, the UDC’s Darboe, Mama Kandeh of the Gambia Democratic Congress and the independent Essa Faal have refused to accept the results and have hinted at legal challenges,[1] but none has been announced a formal legal process as yet. The delay in any pronouncements on the next course of action may reflect difficulties evidencing their concerns. Gambia still employs a traditional method of voting where marbles are dropped in barrels, difficult to manipulate at the ballot. Opposition parties have focused on what they call suspiciously high turnouts, questioning the number of registered voters and an “inordinate delay” in the announcement of results to quote Faal. The risk of significant political disruption is assessed to be low. For example, speaking with an election observer still on the ground we were told: “we have been urging all parties to embrace peace. We’re confident that this message has been understood by the necessary stakeholders for now.”
Assuming the results stand, Barrow’s position is stronger than it has been since the end of the 2016-2018 coalition that originally brought him to power. However, the race is not yet run. National Assembly elections are expected to take place next year. Currently, the UDP is the largest single parliamentary party. And the purported alliance between Barrow’s National People’s Party (NPP) and the former president Yahyah Jammeh’s Alliance for Patriotic Reorientation and Construction (APRC) did not get over the line despite announcements to that effect in September 2021. In the end Jammeh threw his support behind Mama Kandeh[2]. Handling the TRRC findings and recommendations will influence these relationships and others over the short to medium-term. The report is not yet public but recommends prosecution of those culpable for the deaths of approximately 250 people during the Jammeh-era (1994-2017).
Even so, continued structural reforms at home and an unpredictable external environment are dual features of the baseline scenario going forward.
Infrastructure projects delivered during his first term and promises to continue were a lynchpin of the Barrow campaign. Recent investments in capacity at the ministry of petroleum and energy point towards a concerted effort to attract explorative activity in the oil and gas sector
A new national financial inclusion strategy is anticipated – the Gambia has not yet experienced the expansion of mobile money payments and/or other digital financial services observed in its neighbours.
Between 2014 and 2019 alone tourism arrivals grew by a factor of four. The pandemic has interrupted that trend forcefully – real GDP growth fell from 6% in 2019 to 0% last year as a result. Recovery rests in part on the resumption of international travel.
Outlook – Key questions
The political landscape is evenly balanced. There are no presidential term-limits, though Barrow has promised to push for constitutional reform that would introduce such restrictions on power. Meanwhile, Ousainou Darboe, who has been a perennial opposition leader dating back to the Jammeh era, is 73 years old and will be 78 by the time of the next set of elections. Legislative elections are slated to take place next year.
President Barrow has promised to act on the TRRC report saying when he received it: “I assure them [the victims and their families] that my government will ensure that justice is done… but I urge them to be patient and allow the legal process to take its course.” As per the provisions of the TRRC, government has six months to respond to the report.
In terms of the economic and commercial environment, Gambia has already seen dramatic growth in the tourism sector but comparisons with other markets suggest continued unrealised potential. travel restrictions and lockdowns now being reimposed in many countries, including those providing a majority of Gambia’s international arrivals[3].
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[1] Gambia presidential candidates Darboe, Faal and Kandeh join forces to reject election results (Dec 2021). RFI
[2] Kandeh placed third in the poll with 12.3% of the votes cast.
[3] The United Kingdom and the Netherlands in particular as they accounted for 41% of all arrivals in 2016 (most recent available data).
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