Musical chairs, parties, elections and power in Kenya
General elections are scheduled to take place in Kenya in 18 months. In the run up to the polls, the current party structures are coming under significant strain.
Significance – Cast of characters
On the crucial question of personal and party allegiances, much is still in play. President Uhuru Kenyatta has no anointed successor and unity within his Jubilee party has been undermined by his rivalry with current deputy president, William Ruto.
Disgruntlement is strained further still by the rapprochement (of sorts) with Kenyatta’s frequent rival, Raila Odinga of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM). There were even rumours that Odinga would be endorsed as a 2022 presidential election candidate by Kenyatta, allowing the latter to continue to exert influence over affairs (possibly even being nominated as Prime Minister).
Now however, it appears that Kenyatta’s Jubilee will need to field its own candidate. This would undermine the weight in votes of any Kenyatta-Odinga grouping. More so, if and when, eventual losers of the Jubilee leadership contest defect to William Ruto.
Ruto seems set to stand for president under the banner of United Democratic Alliance (UDA), a newly formed alliance that has taken with it many members of the ruling Jubilee party.
Outlook - Predictable themes
The Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) referendum is scheduled to take place this year, and general elections in August 2022. The first will impact the second in myriad ways. It will determine the size of the prize for the eventual winner (please see here) and sever/cement the relationships described above.
As stated above, we do not yet know the identity of the Jubilee party presidential candidate. However, we can expect certain themes to feature in the contest regardless. Whoever faces off against William Ruto will play on his trial and acquittal by the ICC in 2016 as well as corruption scandals involving allies such as Henry Rotich and Rashid Echesa. His support base in the Rift Valley will likely remain steadfast, and his advocates anywhere will make glowing reference to his humble origins.
Similarly, Raila Odinga - popular in the west of the country but long a divisive figure in Kenyan politics - can expect to see supporters describing him as tenacious and determined, and detractors as unappealingly desperate to become president. His age, (77 at the time of elections) may play against him in a country where the average age is only 20.
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Photo credit: Unsplash Glen Carrie.
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