Somalia’s Misstep into Constitutional Crisis
2021 was slated to be a transformational year for Somalia. Unfortunately, it has missed its deadline to hold elections by 8 February meaning that the current mandate of the presidency and the legislature has expired, plunging the country in to a constitutional crisis.
Significance - Domestic and external consensus
Although no specific date for elections had been set, under a September 2020 agreement between regional leaders, elections were to take place “by late 2020 or early 2021” and the current government’s term ended on 8 February. There are no real accusations of President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed (also known as Farmaajo) stalling elections in an attempt to hold on to power[1]. However, the delay stems from a lack of consensus over the composure of local-level electoral commissions – this is indicative of the perennial struggle between Mogadishu and autonomous (desirous) regions.
Somalia’s relations with neighbouring Kenya are a salient feature in its domestic political logjam. In the border region of Jubaaland (one of the regions whose electoral commission was contested), Kenya is accused of backing the local leader, Ahmed Mohamed Islaam Madobe, and militia groups against Mogadishu as well as seeking to delegitimise the Mogadishu regime by agreeing to establish a consulate in breakaway Somaliland. The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) was tasked with investigating but found no wrongdoing without even crossing the border into Somalia, carrying out interviews only on the Kenyan side, and undermining its findings. The Somali government rejected the report that the mission produced. There are also ongoing trade disputes between the two - Somalia banned the import of khat from Kenya[2] and March will see the resolution of a dispute over maritime waters that are said to be laden with oil and gas.
The delay will almost certainly lead to a worsening security situation as al-Shabaab take advantage of threats to the legitimacy of the government, which will have a knock-on effect on the planned withdrawal of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) mission (3,600 of the 20,600 troops are from the Kenyan Defence Forces). For example, forcing AMISOM to change the timetable or worsening the impact of the drawdown. There were already credible concerns about the ability of the Somali army to handle the fight against al-Shabaab by itself.
Outlook - Investors press pause
A coalition of opposition presidential candidates have said that they now see the current administration as illegitimate and have called for the formation of a transitional council. International partners including the UN and African Union have called for immediate dialogue to resolve the issue but have made no comment on the constitutionality of the continuation of the current administration.
Kenya is unlikely to take a definitive stance with regards to the legitimacy of the administration. However, it is expected to take advantage of the distraction to deepen ties with dissenting states such as Jubaaland, Puntland and Somaliland and will not enter negotiations with what can now be seen as a caretaker government.
Other bilateral partners such as Turkey and Qatar will also be expected to press pause on extending their infrastructural and humanitarian investments in the country. Again, showing that stability is key in international trade. One unintended consequence may be to push freight away from Somalia and to the Bebera port in Somaliland – work is already ongoing on a USD442 million upgrade that will see Ethiopian and other regional goods channelled through there.
[1] In contrast with several others in the region e.g., Uganda (see here) and Cote d’Ivoire (see here)
[2] Somalia is the largest export market of Kenyan khat with a market worth over $100m annually
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Photo credit: Abukar Sky
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