Political risk scenarios emerging from South African ruling party attempt at discipline

On 29 March, the African National Congress (ANC) announced that members who are presently being prosecuted for alleged corruption must step aside within 30 days – or be suspended. This most notably affects the party’s secretary-general Ace Magashule, whose trial began in November 2020 and who has still not agreed to step aside. The current resolution has been issued by invoking a rule in the party’s constitution, which ironically puts enforcement of the rule at the secretary-general’s discretion.

Significance – Ramaphosa vs Magashule

The ongoing wrangling within ANC affects President Cyril Ramaphosa’s capacity to set and implement his own agenda given the party’s central role in the country’s political system. Magashule and his camp want more radical policymaking (e.g. on wealth redistribution) than Ramaphosa has managed, and the president’s political future depends on how much control he has over the ANC leadership compared to those rivals.

Magashule is the ‘belly’ of that leadership, to quote opposition leader Julius Malema, because of the powers that the party’s constitution vests in the secretary-general. That Magashule has withstood pressure to step aside since early 2020 (including a recommendation by the Integrity Commission) speaks to his de facto influence in the ANC. His forceful removal would not only be legally questionable but would also further destabilise the party.

This is the second time that an ANC president is locked in a dispute with a top member of the ANC’s National Executive Council (NEC). As president of the country, Thabo Mbeki removed his deputy Jacob Zuma over alleged corruption in 2005. This cracked the party and disoriented government policymaking. Zuma successfully challenged Mbeki for the ANC presidency two years later, and Mbeki resigned as South Africa’s president after his party recalled him.

Outlook –  Regaining stability

Time will tell how the new rule changes incentives and shapes behaviour over the long-term. In the meantime, there are three scenarios that could occur when the 30-day ultimatum elapses by end of this month: (a) Magashule grudgingly steps down, (b) he is forcefully removed, or (c) the NEC adopts a less firm stance. None of these scenarios include the ANC significantly improving its internal cohesion this year. Upcoming municipal elections and an important party conference will further test internal cohesion.

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Photocredit: President Cyril Ramaphosa, Flickr Government ZA

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