Risk and uncertainty increase in Chad
Chad’s president, Idriss Deby, has been killed just one day after the confirmation of his victory in the 11 April polls. It appears that he was wounded on the front line during a rebel attack on 18 April having gone to command troops who were fighting to halt a rebel advance that sought to take the capital, N’Djamena and he succumbed to his injuries on 20 April having been flown back to N’djamena.
Significance – An extreme political risk rating
Official election results gave Deby victory with 79.3% of the vote and were declared on Monday, 19 April. The victory was not without controversy. Democratic space has significantly narrowed in the decades since he came to power[1] and this electoral cycle saw the attempted arrest of a leading opposition figure resulting in the death of some of his close family. Another was banned for a variety of ‘administrative issues’ with his application. This had led to a widespread opposition boycott of the polls and large public outcries before the poll.
Chad is a lynchpin of regional security dynamics despite the deficit in internal and external political consensus that has existed throughout Deby’s time in office since December 1990. And this month, as he has often done, Deby travelled to the front line of the battle against Front pour l’Alternance et la Concorde au Tchad (FACT) rebels who had been attempting to attack the capital, N’Djamena. He was reportedly wounded in an attack, returned to N’Djamena for treatment and then passed away on Tuesday 20 April.
In announcing his death, an army spokesman stated that Deby’s son, General Mahamat Kaka had been appointed as the interim head of state by a National Council of Transition that will rule for 18 months and that the council has taken measures “to guarantee peace, security and the republican order."
Outlook – Uncertain transition and further civil unrest
Questions will be asked about the succession process with the military taking over as opposed to the leader of the National Assembly as is the given process under the 1996 constitution. It also calls for elections to be held within 45 days. This seems unlikely and may lead to civil unrest on top of the advance of the FACT rebels. However, this may also be a ploy to steady power amongst troops that have shown signs of division.
The role of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) of which Chad is a member will be closely monitored. However, it doesn’t have the convening and mediatory powers of ECOWAS and only in March of this year said that conflicts and COVID-19 have harmed regional integration[2]. More likely to be of import will be the role of international powers such as France who have been strong supporters of Deby over the years but are also already calling for a swift return to civilian rule.
In the longer term, we can look to Kaka as a potential leader, it had been assumed that Deby was in the process of grooming him for succession already. This will be contested by the opposition and efforts will need to be made to both civilian and political opponents who are sceptical of an unknow and likely nepotistic leader.
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[1] Although Deby assumed power in a December 1990 coup d’état, elections were instituted from 1996 onwards.
[2] https://www.voanews.com/africa/central-african-states-say-covid-19-conflicts-halt-integration
*Photo credit: Idriss Deby. Rama, CC BY-SA 2.0
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