Kenya’s BBI proposals pass parliamentary hurdle
Both Kenyan houses of parliament have now voted to approve the highly contested Constitution of Kenya (Amendment) Bill, 2020, commonly known as the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI). The results were more comfortable than expected. The Senate voted 51 to 11 in favour with one abstention, whilst in the National Assembly it was 235 against 83 with 2 abstentions. Theoretically, this clears a path for the bill to face public opinion in a referendum. Important institutional hurdles remain, however.
Significance – Internal fights and short timelines
The BBI debate has been viewed as yet another bone of contention between President Uhuru Kenyatta and his deputy, William Ruto. Or, at least, a dividing line between them. The two fell out over the past few years and it is fully expected that Ruto will contest next year’s general election under the banner of the newly created United Democratic Alliance (UDA) umbrella, taking a significant number of Kenyatta’s Jubilee Party members with him.
Kenya's 67 senators by party
Kenya's 349 MPs by party
However, in reality, Ruto has tread a careful path on the BBI. The deputy president was never full throated in his opposition to the BBI bill. The result is a landscape wherein many Jubilee MPs and senators could be open in their support of Ruto, and yet lend their support to the BBI, or not, as they see fit. On the one hand, If the BBI becomes law it would increase the powers of the president. And on the other, it also bolsters funding for the counties and constituencies. See: What’s at Stake in Kenya’s Hotly Contested BBI Referendum?
There are now 90 days for the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) to organise the referendum. This will require a degree of cooperation between the IEBC and central government (or acquiescence on the part of the IEBC) that has been lacking over the past year:
The IEBC claimed that the decision to create and delineate new constituencies (the BBI proposes 70) is purely within their remit, putting it at odds with the BBI backers.
The IEBC also claims that the vote will cost as much as KSH 14 billion (USD 131 million) i.e., more than government projections and that no budgetary allocation has been made to cover this[1].
The IEBC still does not have a full complement of commissioners following delays in the appointment of 4 candidates by President Uhuru Kenyatta. The process of recruitment began two weeks ago with the appointment of a selection panel. However, it has yet to start due to a legal challenge against one member of the panel.
Outlook – 2021 votes, 2022 polls
Notwithstanding the hurdles, the original deadline of holding a referendum in the first half of 2021 is not impossible. An outstanding legal judgement previously halted the IEBC from taking any action on preparing for a referendum but a High Court ruling is expected to be given later this week. They are not expected to hinder the process.
Looking ahead at 2022 general elections, Ruto-critics have seen the lack of a single position for or against the BBI in his camp as evidence that he is not a viable candidate for next year’s poll. In fact, it is the result of a deliberate strategic ambiguity from the deputy president. The appearance of dissent is easily overemphasised. Moreover, the other main contender will likely be Raila Odinga[2] who has alienated sections of his support due to his reconciliation with Kenyatta and subsequent support of the BBI.
—
[1] https://www.iebc.or.ke/uploads/resources/92ciUd8j5m.pdf
[2] Kenyatta has served his two terms and has yet to start the process of selecting a successor.
*Photo credit: Joseph Ndungu @v4cuum
—
We are an African-owned and managed firm delivering local knowledge supporting transformative and sustainable strategic decision-making. Do get in touch if you require assistance: advisory@songhaidvisory.com