Brief: Gabon's economic diplomacy

There are currently 19 African states in the Commonwealth. By next year, there may be twenty. President Ali Bongo was in London this week meeting with Commonwealth Secretary General Patricia Scotland discussing the possibility of membership (alongside meeting with UK royals). If those discussions succeed, Gabon will be only the fifth African country to be both a member of Francophonie and the Commonwealth[1].

The approach should be seen as part of a wider strategy. Even before coronavirus took hold globally, there was pressure for reform. Peak oil production was in the 1990s[2]. Even so, between 2010 and 2015, oil still accounted for around 80% of export revenues, 60% of government revenue and 45% GDP, according to official data. Demand destruction as a result of the pandemic has affected this sector and others (e.g., tourism, timber, mining). Although the impact has been less severe than some of the worst predictions, Gabonese economic growth in 2020 was negative, the fiscal position has deteriorated, and public debt has expanded to approximately 72% of GDP. See: Gabon Plans Sale of Stakes in Key Firms.

There are green shoots in the global economic environment, however clearly there are still vulnerabilities including growing geopolitical uncertainty. Diversification of economic ties may be viewed as a risk positive endeavour in this context. In addition to the Commonwealth overtures, President Bongo plans to see English added as a second official language for Gabon while broadening networks and access beyond the French speaking world.

Gabon is also an Africa Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) signatory. Ratification took place almost two years ago[3]. Over the last week, AfCFTA Secretary General Wamkele Mene has been in Libreville meeting the Prime Minister Rose Raponda and Business, SME and Industry Minister Hugues Mbadinga Madiya among others.  

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[1] Cameroon, Mauritius, Rwanda and Seychelles are currently members of the Commonwealth and the Organisation internationale de la francophonie (OIF). Ghana and Mozambique respectively have associate and observer status at the OIF.

[2] Over 350,000 barrels per day (bpd) 1995-1998 for example against 179,000 bpd in December 2020 due to maturing fields, OPEC requirements etc.

[3] July 2019

*Photo credit: Thimpact20, CC BY-SA

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