Nigeria attacks on election facilities threaten political stability

There were two arson attacks on Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) facilities in southeastern Ebonyi this week. That makes six attacks destroying poll equipment in the country’s south, this month alone[1]. INEC chair Mahmoud Yakubu has described these incidents as acts of aggression performed to ‘undermine the commission’s capacity to organise elections and dent the nation’s electoral process.’

Significance – Misaligned incentives

There is an active separatist movement in and around the southeast, and this appears to have developed elements of armed rebellion. Police stations and courthouses have been targeted in ongoing acts of sabotage, while more than 100 police officers have been killed in the region this year. Authorities believe these acts are linked to a militia, which was formed by the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) after an army crackdown in 2018. However, neither IPOB nor its militia has taken responsibility for the ongoing attacks on INEC and others.

While IPOB has popular backing in the region, the state governments and police have significantly lost legitimacy because of their purportedly slow response to the people’s needs and because of flaws in the electoral system (See: Why are Nigeria's MPs demanding a nationwide state of emergency?). Many people here support IPOB’s call for a referendum on self-determination instead of general elections coming up in 2023.

President Muhammadu Buhari, from northern Katsina, will complete his final term in 2023 and expectedly hand over to a southern successor. This expectation is based on an unwritten rule in Nigerian politics that power oscillates between the north and south every two terms. As southern politicians positioned themselves to benefit from this impending arrangement, they have been slow to address the people’s concerns about open grazing in the south by herders coming in from the north. This has allowed IPOB and its militia to thrive and grow its popularity.

Outlook – Systemic risk

Violence and rigging in the 2019 elections, alongside ongoing attacks on INEC, illustrate a decline in the quality of the electoral process. We note that authorities have still not expressed a coherent plan to address these threats to political stability. Holding 2023 elections in this context will likely allow for further ethnic strife and loss of legitimacy – both of which would elevate political and security risks.

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[1] Moreover, there have now been more than 19 attacks on INEC since 2019 according to local paper Punch, but no culprits have as yet been identified

*Photo credit: Wahlkampf in Nigeria 2015, Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung, Flickr

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