Museveni holds the levers as Uganda’s parliament gets new speaker

Jacob Oulanyah was voted as the new speaker of parliament yesterday (24 May), running against Rebecca Kadaga who had been the incumbent for the last ten years. Despite the changing of the guard, this is in many ways an affirmation of the status quo. Both Oulanyah and Kadaga are members of the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM), which currently has nearly two-thirds of seats in the parliament. The winner had effectively been determined the previous day when the party endorsed Oulanyah. Kadaga ran anyway as an independent candidate. The result underscores NRM’s continued political dominance under President Yoweri Museveni’s watch.

Significance – Establishment candidate

Oulanyah had been Kadaga’s deputy for five years when he first challenged her for the speaker position in 2016. At that time, the NRM supported Kadaga on the condition that she would step down for Oulanyah in 2021. This informal agreement put Oulanyah in a strong position before the election yesterday. However, his position was also bolstered by the fact that the party did better in Oulanyah’s northern region in the 2020 general elections than it did in Kadaga’s Busoga region.

Furthermore, during her tenure Kadaga sometimes took an activist stance against the NRM when she was speaker. For instance, in 2013 she declined to expel four NRM legislators from parliament after they had been evicted from the party for alleged indiscipline.

Outlook – Status quo

There have been notable changes in parliamentary cast and complexion over the last six months. For example, the 2021 general election results and now Rebecca Kadaga’s ouster. See: A new political opposition emerges in Uganda.

Despite them, President Museveni ultimately wields the gavel in parliament. This is underlined by the passage of constitutional amendments in 2005 and 2017 effectively allowing the president to stay in office indefinitely[1] and now Oulanyah’s ascendance.

The current setup in the parliament keeps the distribution of powers intact. NRM has enforced its will, its legislators have affirmed their allegiance and shown the effectiveness of their numerical advantage, and Museveni continues to be the central figure directing the legislative process.

—

[1] Removing presidential term limits (2005) and a related age limit (2017)

*Photo credit: Drew Wilson, Unsplash

—

We are an African-owned and managed firm delivering local knowledge supporting transformative and sustainable strategic decision-making. Do get in touch if you require assistance: advisory@songhaidvisory.com