With its Twitter ban, Nigeria stretches the scope for fiat
Nigeria is setting new rules for social media firms that want to operate in the country. This is being done after a flagged tweet from President Muhammadu Buhari’s account was deleted last month. Parliament is probing this matter, but authorities have generally had much latitude to act by fiat. Businesses should brace for continued policy volatility as the Buhari administration exercises its broad influence over the political system.
Main Findings – Curbs and policy shocks
The ban was announced on 5 June. Next, Information Minister Lai Mohammed said yesterday that social media firms must be incorporated here and be licensed by the Nigerian Broadcasting Corporation (NBC), which regulates TV and radio stations. Meanwhile, the House of Representatives is investigating the legality of the Twitter ban and the government’s motives.[1] Otherwise, the institutional response is muffled.
The Senate has not discussed the matter since it resumed its own sessions this week, and the Nigerian Governors’ Forum[2] has not commented on the matter. Newspapers here continue to report freely on the incident, but most TV and radio stations complied when the broadcast regulator NBC told them to stop using Twitter until the ban is lifted.
A nonprofit named Socio-Economic Rights and Accountability Project (SERAP) has sued the Nigerian government in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) court – courts in the country have not functioned since April due to a staff strike to demand financial autonomy for the judiciary.[3]
Looking back, the Twitter ban is consistent with a pattern of policy shocks that we have seen in the country since 2015, resulting in significant disruptions at both macro and industry levels (See: FIAT Nigeria). For example, telecom GDP growth fell from 17.64% in Q4 2020 to 7.69% the following quarter after the government banned the sale of SIM cards to set up a national ID system. Inflation has also risen since August 2019 when the government stopped trade via land borders, purporting to deal with food smuggling and boost local production.
Further, the latest curb fits into new measures that authorities have introduced to check perceived political threats since the #EndSARS protests in October 2020. The central bank blocked bank accounts for #EndSARS organisers during that upheaval, but organisers bypassed the crackdown using cryptocurrencies. Four months later, the central bank ordered banks to close all accounts used for any type of cryptocurrency payments in the country. (See: New Crypto Rule by Nigeria’s Central Bank Underscores Regulatory Risk).
These measures can be applied widely. A national ID system similar to the existing Bank Verification Number (BVN) system could enable the government to also block a citizen from performing other activities such as voting in elections, purchasing land or applying to university. NBC regulating social media can order a blackout or censor information there as it does for TV and radio.
A former soldier, Buhari previously used related methods when he headed a military regime from 1984 to 1985. Land borders were shut to fight smuggling, decrees were issued that curtailed the freedom of speech and a War Against Indiscipline (WAI) campaign was waged.
The president unsuccessfully tried to reintroduce that WAI in 2016, but other methods have been adopted by his longtime associates who hold key positions in the government. These include the justice minister Abubakar Malami who instigated a USD2 billion tax demand from MTN in 2018 in connection with equipment imports. The telecom regulator, federal tax agency and customs were not initially involved in the dispute, and the minister dropped this demand in 2020 after the South African company challenged the government in court.
Outlook – More fiat
Buhari’s APC holds around 60% of seats in both houses of parliament, and so the parliament is unlikely to push for an overturn of the Twitter ban despite some political opposition. The muted response by the Senate and most state governors also indicates that authorities have enough latitude to continue to stretch their powers and act by fiat.
However, to provide regulatory certainty, the rules for social media regulation being proposed now would need to be backed by legislation. An attempt to introduce a “Protection from Internet Falsehoods, Manipulations and Other Related Matters” bill in 2019 faced significant popular backlash and still is not law. Any renewed efforts will likely be met with similar civil society resistance. Social media businesses considering local registration face other weaknesses in the legal system. For example, the strikes mentioned above. Firms may also be affected by increased regulation for communication and payments, and should, broadly speaking, brace for more policy shocks as the administration exercises its influence over the political system.
That Twitter established its Africa base in Ghana (with a Nigeria outlook) is an example of how firms seek to mitigate this type of risk.
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[1] The probe was ordered on 7 June and the relevant committees have 10 days to submit their findings.
[2] A group of the country’s 36 state governors
[3] This strike was canceled on 9 June. Workers have agreed to return to the courts on 14 June.
*Image Credit: Unsplash, Jeremy Zero
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