Gbagbo’s Homecoming
Cote d’Ivoire’s former president, Laurent Gbagbo, has finally returned to the country, having been in effective exile since the 2010/11 civil war and subsequent war crime charges at the International Criminal Court (ICC). Gbagbo was finally fully acquitted and thereby cleared to return in March 2021. His return heralds the resumption of a three-decade cycle of competition and cooperation between three principal political figures – Gbagbo, former president Henri Konan Bedie and current president Alassane Ouattara.
Significance – Towards reconciliation
Given his enduring popularity for a significant segment of the Ivorian body politic, Gbagbo’s return could be interpreted as a normalisation of national politics. Certainly, it presents an opportunity to further Cote d’Ivoire’s long-delayed political reconciliation. His yesterday (17 June) reception encapsulates some of the preferences, constraints and tensions surrounding that prospect. Gbagbo was met at the airport by members of his family and the current leader of his Front populaire ivoirien (FPI) party, Pascal Affi N’Guessan. There were no government representatives present and the former president did not use the presidential reception area at the airport that had been placed at his disposal. Thereafter, thousands of supporters lined the streets of Abidjan to welcome Gbagbo alongside a heavy security presence. They did so despite public health and security concerns about the mass gathering of supporters. Authorities had few tenable options to stop crowds forming. In the event, there were reports of live bullets and tear gas being fired in some areas and Gbagbo’s spokesman decried the “unwarranted reaction” by the security forces. However, according to the communications minister, although there were some “disturbances”, in the main there were no abuses of public order. Laurent Gbagbo made his first address at the FPI party headquarters declaring how “happy [he is] to return to Côte d'Ivoire and Africa after being acquitted."
Still, there is an uneasy detente between Gbagbo and the Ouattara administration. This can be seen in the somewhat mixed messages from the government:
Ouattara has openly said that Gbagbo is free to return to the country and even assigned people at the presidency to handle his homecoming. However, officials also expressed their displeasure at the FPI having unilaterally announced a return date without first consulting them. Moreover, Ouattara, having amply demonstrated his concern about ‘legacy’ in the past will be wary of the fact that much of his success over the past decade[1] is at least in part owed to facing limited and very fractured opposition. Gbagbo could change this.
There is still the possibility that Gbagbo could be arrested at some point as he was tried in absentia in 2019 and found guilty of looting the public purse, a crime for which he was fined around EUR 500 million and sentenced to 20 years in prison. All government officials, including Ouattara, have refused to be drawn on what will happen regarding that conviction. However, Gbabgo’s wife, Simone was granted an amnesty by Ouattara in 2018 having served three years of a 20-year sentence for crimes against humanity, suggesting that the possibility of clemency is high.
The old boys’ club of Gbagbo, Ouattara and Bedie are perennial foes but also all vital to the reconciliation process. They have been at the forefront of Ivorian politics for three decades, at one point or another either forming ties with or competing against each other. Bedie has been instrumental in efforts made at peace building since the October 2020 election alongside the minister for reconciliation Kouadio Konan Bertin. The FPI and Bedie’s Parti Démocratique de la Côte d'Ivoire (PDCI) entered into an alliance at the parliamentary elections held in March of this year, the first electoral process in years to have all major parties taking part. Gbagbo is also expected to fall in line with this process to which all three have pledged their commitment.
Alongside these dynamics are the families of the 3,000 victims of the civil war, a vocal constituency who are unhappy at Gbagbo’s ability to re-join the political elite seemingly without consequence. Many recommendations from the 2012 Dialogue, Truth and Reconciliation Commission are yet to be implemented and there is a general perception that no justice has been granted.
Outlook – Seeing the political cycle
Both the FPI and PDCI will likely use Ouattara’s third term to work on internal party dynamics (e.g., Gbagbo regaining control and attempting to unite the various factions of the FPI). The support base for Gbagbo remains exceptionally strong. The Ouattara government may hope to benefit from the normalisation of national politics but mitigate the risk of Gbagbo being a vocal critic of government policy via the threat of imprisonment and/or further prosecution under previous corruption allegations.
There is still a chance that we could see one last showdown between the perennial three at the next presidential election in 2025[2]. None of the major parties have made significant efforts at a succession process and the constitutional changes made by Ouattara will mean that he can argue for a second, second term in office. This is something that few stakeholders wish to see happen, however, with a preference for a genuine reconciliation between all concerned parties and an assurance that none will stand for elected office again.
This early in the political cycle, there can be no certainty about how the concerned parties will act. The dynamics between the three strongmen of Ivorian politics has constantly shifted over the past three decades and scenario planning is a necessary risk management strategy.
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[1] An average growth rate of 8% since 2012 and overall poverty falling from 55% in 2011 to 39% in 2018
[2] By which point they will all be over 80 years old in a country where the current average age is 18.9.
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