Third Time Lucky, Ethiopia Goes to the Polls
Ethiopia has finally voted in twice-delayed elections – 2,432 candidates are vying for 547 available parliamentary seats, representing almost 50 parties. Results are expected in five days. Opposition candidates may gain an unprecedented level of representation in the legislature. However, this is from a low base. It is unlikely that much will change with regards to policy priorities and decision-making as a result of the polls. That said, the political tailwinds from victory for the ruling Prosperity Party and incumbent prime minister Abiy Ahmed are limited by the backdrop of security and logistical challenges that plagued the preparation of the election.
Significance – Foregone conclusion
Thirty-seven million people have registered to cast their ballots in this election, though it will not take place in almost 20% of constituencies (102 of 547) across six regions due to security concerns. The voting in Somali and Harar regions will take place on 6 September, but no schedule exists for a vote in Tigray. The Tigray situation is particularly noteworthy as much of the region is currently under the control of Eritrean troops whilst as many as 350,000 people are said to be living in famine-like conditions, the latter denied by government. The imprisonment of opposition leaders in Oromia has also led to a boycott of the poll by local parties there.
Nonetheless, in terms of political violence, voting on the day appears to have gone relatively smoothly. Long lines of voters could be seen across the country (such that officials extended voting time by three hours to allow all those in queues to cast their ballot) is suggestive of high turnout in the participating areas. The procedural tally is more mixed. In addition to the cancellation of the vote in Tigray, Somali and Harar, legitimacy took a blow when EU observers decided to withdraw from the poll over disagreements over logistical arrangements[1]. And opposition leaders such as Berhanu Nega, leader of the Ethiopian Citizens for Social Justice party (Ezema) have cited irregularities[2]. The head of the National Electoral Board of Ethiopia (NEBE), Birtukan Midekssa, was quick to denounce such acts and called for a swift investigation by the security forces.
One thing that is relatively certain is that Ahmed will win his second term in office via a parliamentary majority for Prosperity. Although this is the most representative election that the country has held, the appeal of smaller parties has yet to pervade society and most of them operate along ethnic lines, limiting their ability for national success.
Outlook – Rapid results, Stable risk parameters
Preliminary results should be ready within five days according to NEBE, significantly shorter than the one month it took in 2015. This alone could be cause for opposition parties to challenge the results, especially given the logistical challenges that have been faced. However, we do not expect significant (particularly successful) legal challenges to the poll though we may see some protests by opposition supporters. Nega, the Ezema leader, has often struck a somewhat conciliatory tone with Ahmed and a reach across the aisle may prove to detractors that Abiy is willing to work alongside his rivals.
The vote is unlikely to have any implication on strained relations with neighbours Egypt and Sudan, as well as the United States[3]. Flagship projects such as the GERD that is the primary source of tension within the region enjoy significant popular support, as does the tough stance of Ahmed. The announcement of sanctions by the US was also met by substantial nationalistic protests. Any parliamentary gains made by the opposition will not be significant enough to dent these sentiments.
Similarly, having actual opposition parties[4] in parliament will be new to Ahmed and hasn’t been seen since the 2005 election. But this will not likely impact on policy making given the majority that we expect Prosperity to win. However, it will lead to levels of vocal criticism and scrutiny that have not frequently been seen in Ethiopian politics before. The most significant obstacles to Abiy’s plan on the gradual liberalisation of one of Africa’s biggest potential growth markets will remain economic and security- based, not political. See Ethiopia's FDI policy produces telecommunications and mining gains.
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[1] See Risk and uncertainty following Ethiopia’s latest election delay.
[2] For example, saying that they had filed over 200 official complaints after observers were denied access to polling stations and some party agents were allegedly beaten
[3] The US has placed travel restrictions on Ethiopian officials as well as making moves to limit some development aid provided by multilateral institutions.
[4] In 2010, there were only 2 opposition members in parliament, in 2015, this was none. The other parties that did win seats in both instances were allied to the then-ruling EPRDF.
*Image credit. Flag map of Ethiopia. Darwinek, CC BY-SA 3.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0>, via Wikimedia Commons
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