Tanzania resumes opposition crackdown under Suluhu

Yesterday (22 July), Tanzanian police announced that Freeman Mbowe, chairman of Chadema, Tanzania’s largest opposition party, will be charged with terrorism offences. Having toured the country campaigning for electoral reform and constitutional review, Mbowe was arrested on 20 July alongside other party members as they prepared for a conference to discuss their demands for a new national constitution (See: Tanzania’s Opposition Demands New Constitution and Electoral Reform). He and other opposition leaders were emboldened by the transition of power from the late John Magufuli to his vice Samia Suluhu Hassan, who spoke of loosening some curbs on civil society that her predecessor tightened. However, this week’s crackdown points to the limits to the pace and nature of changes in governance under Suluhu’s administration.

Significance – Context for reform  

Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) has ruled Tanzania since the country gained independence in 1961. That hegemony was maintained in general elections held in October 2020, when the party won nearly all elective seats in parliament and Magufuli was re-elected with 84% of votes. A regional coalition of activists named Tanzania Elections Watch later reported that those elections were neither free nor fair.[1] For example, a substantial number of independent observers and opposition candidates were not allowed to participate, Magufuli’s main challenger Tundu Lissu sought refuge at a foreign embassy as his party rejected the election results, and finally the constitution disallowed anyone from challenging the presidential election outcome after the electoral commission had proclaimed a winner.

In March 2021, Magufuli passed away and was succeeded by Suluhu who instantly won civil society support with early steps that included lifting restrictions on social media channels and proposing a dialogue with opposition parties to hear their concerns about the country’s democracy. She appeared willing to strengthen civil liberties and even consider a constitution review. This was unlike Magufuli, on whose watch opposition parties were barred from organising events and their leaders were frequently arrested.

Given that background and Magufuli’s death, opposition parties grew more vocal in demanding a new constitution to improve the electoral process. Now they want presidential powers reduced, CCM’s hegemony addressed and more checks and balances written into the constitution. They also want a new electoral commission formed to act independently.

However, CCM showed no interest in warming relations with the opposition. For example, one senior official said last month that amending the constitution is not a priority to the government.

Outlook – Party power and the status quo

The latest clampdown lowers the likelihood that civil liberties will be expressed more freely during Suluhu’s tenure than they were during Magufuli’s. It also demonstrates that CCM is poised to maintain its grip on state institutions while Suluhu is still cultivating political influence, and so significant reforms of the democratic process are unlikely to materialise before the 2025 elections – although we expect the political environment to remain stable.

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[1] Tanzania Elections Watch Final Report (2021, 4 March). TEW

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