Assessing the risk of conflagration in Ethiopia's regional conflict
Fighting between Tigrayan forces and the Ethiopian (Ethiopian National Defence Forces, ENDF) allied with Eritrean combatants since November 2020 was concentrated in their home region of Tigray. However last week, despite the government’s unilateral June 2021 ceasefire, the Tigrayan army began advancing into neighbouring regions, specifically – Afar. This signals not only a widening of the geographical area facing heightened security risk, it also poses new logistical challenges with the possibility that significant national-level infrastructure could become a target.
Significance - Risk to Logistics
The Ethiopian government announced a unilateral ceasefire in Tigray on 29 June after having lost significant ground, including the regional capital, Mekelle. In its response, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) said a ceasefire would be contingent on a total withdrawal of Eritrean forces from Tigray and all forces from the Amhara region. These conditions have not been met and, although hostilities have not returned to their peak , there have been sporadic clashes. Moreover, the ENDF has been joined in recent weeks by regional forces from Amhara, Oromiya, Sidama, and the Southern Nations Nationalities and Peoples' regions. And Tigray Defence Forces (TDF) have begun advancing into Afar.
Sources have told various media houses and NGOs that as many as 54,000 civilians were forced to flee in Afar last week with reports of up to 20 killed. Afar holds particular significance as the main road and rail links between Addis Ababa and Djibouti pass through the region. As much as 95% of Ethiopia’s freight passes through Djibouti port, making links serving the capital a viable target for TPLF-allied forces. Plans have also been announced recently for a boosting of power infrastructure between the two countries[1] that is aimed at boosting exports from Ethiopia to Djibouti that have been worth an estimated USD 275 million over the past decade, much of this will pass through Afar.
Alongside the escalations in Afar, Amhara which also borders Tigray is seeing an uptick in violence. The regional president, Agegnehu Teshager, on Sunday (25 July) called for “all people of age who are armed either at governmental or private level to mobilise for a survival campaign.” There have been tensions between Tigray and Amhara for decades and these worsened early in the Tigray conflict when Amhara seized parts of Tigray to which they lay historical claim, this has remained an active battlefront since November. Am hara forces have also been supporting the ENDF in Afar, this is even one of the reasons given for the Tigray excursion in Afar.
Outlook – Widening in security risk
In reality, the inclusion of regional forces raises the risk of a broader ethnicised conflict, beyond the TDF-ENDF nexus. On top of the historic tensions between Tigray and Amhara this coming together of regional forces in conflict along ethnic lines creates avenues for escalation and wider civilian casualties. Particularly while neither talks or mediation are meaningfully pursued, as is the case presently. For now, there are high levels of public support for the fight against the TPLF[2], in part due to a concerted propaganda war being waged by Addis Ababa that has seen telecommunications in the region cut off and many journalists arrested. However, this may change, the longer the conflict continues, and the wider costs are borne.
Meanwhile, if significant disruption is caused to freight by violence in Afar, it may lead Ethiopian federal authorities to look more closely at other options for importing goods such as those provided under the LAPSETT Corridor Project that seeks to link Kenya, Ethiopia and South Sudan[3]. These options have been mostly shelved thus far given Ethiopia’s heavy investment in Djibouti.
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[1] AfDB (2021). African Development Bank Group, Ethiopia, sign $118 million in grant agreements to support agro industrial park, youth employment and Ethiopia-Djibouti power interconnection
[2] Despite being a minority ethnic group Tigray dominated Ethiopian politics for almost three decades following a 1991 revolution.
[3] See: Kenya’s long-anticipated Lamu Port receives its first ships
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