One year to the polls, Kenya's electioneering
Exactly one year before the Kenyan general elections, it appears as if the blue touch paper has been lit. There have been significant developments in the composition of political alliances as well as issues at the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) which pose risk for the timely conduct of the election. Though by no means set in stone, we now appear to have three frontrunners for the 09 August 2022 polls including a seemingly nominated successor of President Uhuru Kenyatta.
Significance – Coalition Re-composition
The IEBC has announced that the election is scheduled to cost around KSH 40.1 billion (USD 367 million). This is substantially more than the KSH 26.3 billion (USD 240 million) that the treasury has allocated for the polls. MPs, including the majority leader in parliament are questioning the cost and are asking the IEBC to come and defend its request. In response, the IEBC says that it will be forced to cut corners (including not printing excess ballot papers and not carrying out a mass registration exercise) if it does not receive the extra funding it requires. It has also capped campaign spending for the presidential election at KSH 4.4 billion (USD 40.3 million). For the senatorial, female and gubernatorial races the cap has been set at KSH 21.9 million and KSH 120 million (USD 200,000 and USD 1.1 million respectively), depending on the size of the seat[1]. Meanwhile, efforts are underway to rekindle the opposition National Super Alliance (NASA) coalition.
NASA effectively died a death after several central parties withdrew. However, many of them have reformed under the umbrella of the One Kenya Alliance (OKA), without the former NASA leader Raila Odinga.
Strangely, these efforts are being in part led by President Uhuru Kenyatta. Kenyatta has had a very public and acrimonious falling out with his vice president and originally assumed successor, William Ruto. Kenyatta had previously said that he will choose his successor from within NASA if they can unite behind a single candidate and now seems to have settled on his former foe, Raila Odinga, who lost elections to Kenyatta in 2013 and 2017.
The two have become close since their infamous 2018 ‘handshake’ and their subsequent joint promotion of the Building Bridges Initiative. See: Kenya’s BBI proposals pass parliamentary hurdle.
With this sequence of events, we now have three likely frontrunners for the 2022 election: Raila Odinga, William Ruto and Musalia Mudavadi. Mudavadi has taken up a leadership role within OKA and insists that his name will appear on the ballot regardless of anyone else’s choice. He has political pedigree and sway having been deputy to then-prime minister under Raila Odinga from 2008-2013. He came third in the 2013 presidential election and is currently the leader of the Amani National Congress (AMC).
Outlook – Already risk of legal challenges
A delay or complications in the registration exercise pose a real threat to the timely conduct of the overall election. However, the loophole to challenge campaign spending limits already exists. The law is meant to have been approved one year before the vote, but it has yet to be agreed to by parliament. And the enforceability of electoral commission directives is undermined by capacity constraints at the IEBC.
Odinga will not be a popular candidate in the Jubilee[2] caucus, however, he could be seen as a stability option. Kenyatta’s backing will mean that he will have the state machinery at his disposal. The exact party/coalition under which Odinga will stand is yet unclear but his ideal scenario would be a NASA-style coalition that provides a mechanism under which as many geographical and tribal interests can be represented. OKA has invited him to join them[3]. Setting the scene for an early power struggle with Mudavadi. Either way, there will be further machinations and changes of allegiance before the final battle lines are drawn for 09 August 2022.
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[1] The Kenya Gazette (2021). Contributions and spending limits for political parties and candidates for the purposes of the general eledction scheduled to be held on 9th August, 2022
[2] Current ruling party
[3] Odinga has yet to respond to their offer
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