South Africa’s Ramaphosa in dilemma over corruption claims against health minister
In June this year, President Cyril Ramaphosa sent Minister of Health Zweli Mkhize on ‘special leave’ when South Africa’s Special Investigating Unit (SIU) began probing the minister’s relationship with Digital Vibes and the award of a communications contract to the firm in 2020. Now, he is under pressure to act even more decisively.
The SIU told a tribunal on 29 July that it had found evidence showing that Mkhize and his son Dedani received illicit payments from a Digital Vibes executive who was also Mkhize’s associate, and that Mkhize pressured health ministry to award the said contract. Given the outcome of their probe, SIU officials have recommended Mkhize be prosecuted for alleged corruption.
The episode has near term political implications for the government. Ramaphosa must juggle running his cabinet and leading the African National Congress (ANC) with preparing for re-election in 2022, and Mkhize’s fate will have an impact on the president’s chances while broader divisions within the party will continue to hamper government effectiveness.
Significance – Playing local politics
Mkhize is influential in the Ramaphosa administration because of his political credentials. He was treasury-general and one of the top six leaders of the governing African National Congress’ (ANC) from 2012 and 2017. He is also a former premier of KwaZulu-Natal province where the ANC draws its largest membership. Given those credentials, Ramaphosa leaned on Mkhize’s support to make inroads into this province when he first ran for office in 2017, and he would again need this support for a re-election bid when the party’s branches vote a new president in a national elective conference that will be held in December 2022. This is why it could be costly for the president to dismiss such a key figure from KwaZulu-Natal at this time and risk antagonising the party’s provincial structures.
At present, there is already significant disapproval from ANC in KwaZulu-Natal over former president Jacob Zuma’s imprisonment last month and Ramaphosa’s response to the subsequent unrest (See: Post-unrest: Three top priorities for South Africa’s Ramaphosa). Zuma is from this province, and the fallout from his forced resignation in 2018 has since portrayed Ramaphosa unfavourably among provincial leaders mostly aligned with Zuma. Now, the Digital Vibes scandal complicates the scenario for Ramaphosa – who has been leading ANC to enforce a resolution made in March that all members facing trial for corruption must step aside or be removed. Ramaphosa would be forced to apply this resolution to Mkhize should the National Prosecuting Authority (NPA) eventually charge the minister as recommended by the SIU.
Outlook – Eyes on 2022
Ramaphosa could let Mkhize continue his special leave in the background if the minister does not voluntarily resign. The president could also dismiss him outright or reshuffle his cabinet such that Mkhize exits alongside others. A cabinet reshuffle appears to be the most probable of these scenarios given there are current openings in the cabinet and the government’s response to last month’s upheaval evoked calls for fresh ideas.
In any case, Mkhize’s probable exit would dent Ramaphosa’s prospects in KwaZulu-Natal – although he retains sizable support in other provinces such as Mpumalanga that could have similar influence over his re-election bid. Meanwhile, the party’s disoriented state will impair government effectiveness, and the complicated process of dealing with these conflicts would limit Ramaphosa’s scope for driving legislation or other long-term policies relevant to investment (See: South Africa Unrest Sets Back Ramaphosa’s Bid to Reorient ANC).
—
Photo: National Coronavirus Command Council briefs media on plans to combat the spread of COVID-19, 13 July 2020. Flickr
—
We are an African-owned and managed firm delivering local knowledge supporting transformative and sustainable strategic decision-making. Do get in touch if you require assistance: advisory@songhaidvisory.com