Guinea Bissau’s ruling coalition in disarray as President Embalo loses support

Guinea-Bissau’s ruling Movimento para Alternância Democrática (MADEM-G15) has split into two factions over a rivalry between President Umaro Embalo and the party leader Braima Camara. The two men have been publicly countering each other in recent weeks over the distribution and nature of political appointments made in the past year. Embalo’s appointment of Soares Sambu as deputy prime minister in November 2020 has been particularly divisive, with Camara’s faction claiming that the constitution does not allow for a deputy prime minister. The conflict typifies the conditions that led to a policy impasse in the previous administration and threatens to limit the scope of economic reform in the near term.  

Significance – Political capital shrinks

Embalo was one of seven prime ministers appointed by his predecessor José Mário Vaz in 2014-2020. Although the transition from Vaz to Embalo was the first peaceful handover in the country’s history[1], the perpetual conflict between the president and prime minister has continued to simmer in the Embalo era. It threatens government stability and the store of political capital necessary for economic reforms and/or normal government business.

Embalo took office in February 2020 and soon fell out with his own prime minister Nuno Nabiam over control of the government. However, he was unable to remove Nabiam because of the army’s support for the prime minister. Nabiam is Balanta, a dominant ethnic group in the country, that largely controls the army. In November 2020, Embalo appeared to subvert Nabiam by appointing Soares Sambu as deputy prime minister and according him broad functions covering cabinet, parliament and regional relations. Economy Minister Victor Mandinga threatened to resign when Soares was appointed. This signifies the disruptive impact of Soares’ appointment on government cohesion.

Another divisive move by Embalo has been his attempt to amend the country’s constitution to change the semi-presidential system of government to a presidential system. The president ordered a committee write a new constitution in May 2020, saying this would clarify the government hierarchy and minimize tensions between the president and prime minister, but the main opposition Partido Africano para a Independência da Guiné e Cabo Verde (PAIGC) has effectively blocked his plot. The PAIGC holds 47 of 102 seats in parliament compared to 27 held by Embalo’s Madem-G15.

Madem-G15’s coalition with Nabiam’s Assembleia do Povo Unido-Partido Democrático da Guiné-Bissau (APU-PDGB) and the Partido da Renovação Social (PRS) enabled the participating parties to claim a parliamentary majority in principle. However, Nabiam reshuffled the cabinet in April this year, reducing Madem-G15’s presence in the government in relation to the others. This has further strained the coalition and weakened the cooperation of its members in parliament.  

This infighting occurs against a backdrop in which Guinea-Bissau’s economy shrank by 1.5% last year because of Covid and the resulting slump in the volume and price of the principal export, cashew nuts. Moreover, even before 2020, political instability had long weakened the government’s capacity to stimulate economic growth, wean the public sector of donor support and rein in public debt. GDP growth was less than 4% in the previous decade, and now public debt is 79% of GDP – higher than the West African Economic and Monetary Union’s (WAEMU) convergence cap of 70%.

To deal with these defects, the current government has managed to initiate IMF monitored reforms[2] despite the described constraints in the policy environment. A programme to rationalise civil service wages is underway while a new telecommunication tax was introduced this year to improve government revenue, but both have caused labour unrest and contributed to political tension. The main labour union União Nacional dos Trabalhadores da Guiné (UNTG) has repeatedly gone on a strike since January to demand more pay and tax cuts, with the latest one beginning on Wednesday this week.

Outlook – Unstable policy environment 

Embalo’s continued stay in office depends on the ruling coalition remaining together. There are already rumours that PRS, which has 20% of parliamentary seats, will align with the main opposition PAIGC. Such a development could oust Embalo before his first term ends or scuttle plans for re-election in 2024. Meanwhile, strains in the ruling coalition will continue to inhibit government effectiveness and limit the scope for economic reforms. So will ongoing tensions between Embalo and his prime minister Nubiam.

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[1] Following the 2019 elections

[2] IMF (2021). IMF Managing Director Approves a Staff Monitored Program for Guinea-Bissau

Photo credit: Palácio Presidencial em Bissau. Joehawkins, CC BY-SA 4.0

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