Guinea’s Transition to Civilian Rule: The Military Junta Rejects ECOWAS Proposals

Following a coup on 5th September 2021, the regional bloc, the Economic Community Of West African States (ECOWAS), suspended Guinea from all of its activities, as it has done previously in similar situations such as in Mali. It made calls for ousted President Alpha Conde to be released immediately and for a return to constitutional order. Those calls have fallen on deaf ears and the Comité National du Rassemblement et du Développement (CNRD, headed by Col. Mamady Doumbouya) that has taken power is undertaking widespread consultations to determine its roadmap for a return to civilian rule. 

Significance – CNRD standing firm

On 16th September, ECOWAS held a summit in Accra to discuss the coup and decided to place economic and travel sanctions on the members of the CNRD and their families. They again called for the release of Conde and for elections to be held within six months. The next day, ECOWAS Chairperson and President of Ghana, Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo and Ivoirian President Alassane Ouattara travelled to Conakry to attempt to secure the release of Conde and to relay their decisions from the summit but, it became clear that the CNRD was not prepared to deviate from its plan: namely to embark on what they are calling ‘consensus’ talks with stakeholders across all sections of Guinean society – political, commercial (particularly in the pivotal mining sector), civil society, international partners (both public and private). 

One of the main contentious factors between ECOWAS and the CNRD is the fate of Conde. Conde has been resolute in his demand to stay in the country with some that have spoken to him going as far as to call him delusional over the strength of his belief that he can still be returned to power. He is refusing to resign, a requirement given by the junta for them to release him from detention. At the same time, the coup leaders have so far shown reluctance to heed the ECOWAS call for Conde to be allowed in to exile in another country (Congo Brazzaville has been often mentioned) with Doumbouya saying after the meeting with Akufo-Addo and Ouattara that “it is (also) clear to all parties that the former president will remain in Guinea." It is unclear if they will seek any criminal charges against him for his alleged corrupt practices whilst in office.

As anticipated, the junta has sought to maintain production in the mining sector. Adding to a previous exemption from the initial curfew that was put in place, there have also been meetings with representatives of the sector in which support was promised to ensure that all activities continue as before and reiterating that all laws, contracts, and regulations will continue to be adhered to. Although mining firms will need to uphold their developmental obligations – the sector must be seen to be working for the average Guinean, especially in mining regions. This condition has not deterred mining firms as yet. In the past week alone, one Canadian firm is reportedly seeking to acquire a new exploration permit in the country and Australian firm Golden Rim Resources is pursuing  a capital raise for its Kada project . 

Outlook – Expectation of continued stability

Some key international partners have deferred to Guineans to resolve the situation, in contrast to ECOWAS’ stance of calling for elections in six months. The UN’s special representative for West Africa and the Sahel for instance has confirmed that the organisation believes that the transition has to be a domestic process: "No, the duration will be decided by Guineans themselves. So far, we have said: we want a reasonable duration, but the reasonable duration depends on the Guineans themselves". Other partners have condemned the coup but have held back from taking further action. The African Union has suspended Guinea but has taken no further action and, as yet no organisations have heeded ECOWAS’ call to replicate the sanctions that the regional bloc has imposed. This is largely down to the large amount of popular support the coup has had, even from former opposition members who see it as righting the wrong initially done by Conde by taking his third term in office. The other main factor is that the coup has not been particularly disruptive to commercial activity and, so far, all stakeholders have been responding positively to the interactions they have had with the CRND.

Support for ECOWAS particularly from Guinean civil society is at a low ebb. Questions have been raised over ECOWAS’ legitimacy to make demands following its lack of action regarding Conde’s initial constitutional reforms, his third term bid and the electoral violence that ensued[1]. ECOWAS’ calls for him to be given safe passage into exile rather than face potential criminal charges in his home country further these sentiments. There are few other avenues open to the regional bloc via which it can try to negotiate with the coup leaders. The economic and travel sanctions placed on the leaders have had little to no effect on the latter’s resoluteness to follow their own (as yet unannounced) timetable for a transition back to civilian rule. 

The overwhelming sentiment on the ground in Guinea is one of support for the change of guard, in the belief that the coup will usher the way for democracy to return in the near future with minimal disruption to their daily lives.  There is precedent for that in Guinea. Yet the CNRD must manage this political capital judiciously by coming good on its promises to act in the best interest of the citizens, and to avoid a descent into chaos. 

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