Risks, whys and wherefores in the aftermath of Guinea’s Coup

For the most part, calm has returned to the streets of Guinea’s capital, Conakry following the 4 September military coup led by the leader of the army’s special forces. President Alpha Conde has been arrested and, though his exact whereabouts are unknown, videos appear to show him unharmed. This coup comes less than a year after highly contentious elections that saw at least dozens of deaths as a result of clashes between security forces and those opposed to what they described as an unconstitutional third-term bid by Conde. The strain on popular legitimacy over the last 12 months has been accompanied by an increase in economic pressures (notwithstanding mining sector resilience). Both are positively correlated with increased political risk events such as the recent coup d’état. Now having seized power, the military have promised democratic transition and prioritised guarantying continuous operations in the mining sector, accounting for approx. 90% of exports and 35% of GDP.

Significance – Popular legitimacy and economic strain

Following reports of gunfire around the presidential palace early in the morning of 5 September, the defence ministry initially reported that an attempted coup by elements of the army had been repelled. However, hours later Colonel Mamady Doumbouya, head of the special forces, appeared on state television to say that the constitution had been dissolved. This was met with jubilation on the streets of Conakry and other parts of the country. Later in the day, a nationwide curfew was announced. On Monday, Doumbouya summoned all of Conde’s ministers to the parliament building where they were told to surrender their passports and official vehicles, but they were also assured that there would be no witch hunt.

In addition to Conde’s third-term, context for the Doumbouya coup includes an increase in spending on the executive at the expense of the military approved last week, and the appointment of an interim prime minister on 22 August[1], which was seen as a further attempt to secure Conde’s grip on power. According to a local diplomat, a recent attempt to remove an unnamed senior military officer is also a motivating factor. Alongside any immediate triggers is a broader socio-economic critique. In his initial address, Doumbouya said that they had decided to act as Guinea had not made enough progress in its 72 years of independence. Although the country has seen moderate economic gains with a post-covid recovery expected to push GDP growth to 5.2% this year, up from 4% in 2020, expansion has been driven by growth in the mining sector in large part. Mining contributes around 35% of GDP and over 90% of export earnings but has enclave characteristics (outside of Boké region). For Guineans at large, changes in the price level and attempts to moderate the same are more immediate measures of life quality. Inflation rose to 13% this year from 10% in 2020 and just last month petrol increased from GNF 9,000 per litre to GNF 11,000 (USD 0.92 to USD 1.12), a more than 20% hike. Attempts to introduce price controls on bread in March of this year had to be walked back after a backlash from bakers.

Outlook – Promises of stability

The risk of any increasing political violence has reduced over the last 24 hours. The overwhelming initial public support for the actions of the military suggest that compliance with their directives will be high. However, the details and timeline for political transition are a potential trigger for tensions. Whilst Doumbouya has announced plans for a unity government to oversee a transition to civilian rule but no timeframe has been given. The period from coup to transition, which eventually brought Conde to power in 2010 lasted 18-24 months. Regional peers will want to see a shorter timeline this time but it will be difficult, especially if a new constitution is part of the process.

Either way, relations with bilateral and multilateral international partners will be key to the efficiency of the transition. Already, the regional bloc ECOWAS and the African Union are calling for the army to return to its barracks, an immediate return to constitutional rule and the release of Conde. Whilst these are unlikely to happen in the short term, to avoid the threat of sanctions negotiations would have to get underway. Also to be observed are the reactions of France (yet to officially comment) and China, that has condemned the coup. The former colonial power is also where Doumbouya previously served as a member of the French foreign legion and China is one of the major players in the mining sector. In addition to its investment in iron ore development, China is a significant development partner e.g., pledging USD20 billion in concessional loans to Guinea in 2018.

Meanwhile, uncertainty over the longer term aims of the military present risks for mining but are bracketed. The coup leaders have assured a continuation of production in the mining sector, even lifting the curfew for mining areas and urging operations to continue. In the longer term, the principal security risk to mines remains incursions from illegal miners or friction with local populations dissatisfied with employment creation and/or the distribution of other benefits. Similarly, reputational risk will likely return to their former locus around social impact and transparency in the sale of concessions and/or awarding of licenses.
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[1] The substantive PM was not incapacitated but had taken time off to mourn the loss of his daughter.

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