Election analysis: Nigeria's pre-election constitutional reform

Nigeria’s National Assembly passed 49 out of 68 constitutional reform bills on 1 March. They include proposals to allow states to make and administer regulations for the railway, aviation and power sectors, and amendments that would set a timeframe for the president to present a budget to parliament and form a cabinet. The bills will now go to the 36 state parliaments and only those that are adopted by 24 of the parliaments will be transmitted to President Muhammadu Buhari for assent. However, political resources committed to this process will be limited by campaigning for the scheduled February-March 2023 general elections.

Significance – Devolution and government effectiveness

A constitutional reform process occurs in Nigeria in every election cycle. Often proposals stem from agitation against a highly centralised federal system by states seeking greater devolution of powers. And that is again in evidence. This time, lawmakers want to move aviation and rail from the exclusive list in the constitution to the concurrent list i.e., out from the exclusive preserve of the federal government to that of both federal and state level governments. One of the bills would also clarify the powers of states to regulate the generation, transmission and distribution of electricity independent of the central grid.

Lawmakers have also adopted changes in response to recent developments that threatened government effectiveness. President Buhari did not form a cabinet for five months after he had assumed office in 2015, and so one constitutional amendment bill would now require a president to form a cabinet within 30 days in office. The appropriation process also repeatedly lasted 5-6 months beyond the outgoing financial year from 2016 to 2019. Now, another bill would require a president to submit an appropriation bill at least 90 days to the end of the financial year.

Outlook – Elections and regional rivalry

Buhari is serving out his final term, and so he may be persuaded to assent to proposals that he refused in the 2015-2019 election cycle such as the one on appropriation. However, he is mostly inclined to maintain the existing framework given his legislative track record for the last seven years.

The immediate challenge is getting 24 out of 36 state parliaments to back reform. This would require a high level of coordination and conviction, but the priority for politicians at all tiers of government now is campaigning ahead of elections that will be held in a year.

Further, the agitation for devolution of powers has largely come from southern states and the subject has been a source of friction between the north and south (See: Companies are caught in the middle of Nigeria’s VAT dispute). Either rival region has enough states to block a constitutional amendment, but the north has the upper hand with 19 states compared to 17 in the south.

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*Photo credit. Emmanuel Ikwuegbu

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