Nigeria 2023: electoral reforms and the political environment

Parties will nominate 2023 general election candidates in the coming weeks, and change is baked into the forecast. So too are a series of macro and procedural limitations on the process. President Buhari will not run in 2023, and the electoral commission’s powers have been extended by February 2022 legislation aiming to strengthen the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and plug gaps in the law. However, there is resistance to the proscribed change. In March, a federal high court ruled (controversially) that a key feature in the Electoral Act requiring all political appointees to resign before running for office should be removed[1]. Justice Minister Abubakar Malami is quoted stating that he will implement the decision forthwith. The optics are not good. Malami benefits from such a deletion as it allows him to maintain his influential position in President Muhammadu Buhari’s cabinet while running for governor in his home state, Kebbi.

Significance – Legislation and context

One of the ways the 2022 Electoral Act has strengthened INEC is that it empowers the commission to overturn election results if it finds that its officials announced the results under duress or without due process. This reform is in response to recent elections where INEC officials were abducted, held hostage and coerced into announcing a favourable count.[2] In 2019 for example, INEC tried to review a senatorial election result when its returning officer accused the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate Rochas Okorocha of coercion. A court later ruled that the electoral commission did not have the power to review the result.

Another innovation is the new law’s redefinition of over-voting to curb rigging. In the past, low turnout and an outdated voter register allowed politicians to rig results by inflating their own count – provided this increase did not exceed the number of registered voters in the area. For example, if actual voter turnout was 25%, the ballot count could be inflated to reflect a 45% turnout with the balance in a candidate’s favour. This could not be successfully challenged in court because it was consistent with the old electoral law. INEC then recognised this loophole and improvised a guideline in 2019 allowing it to cancel results if votes exceeded the number of voters who actually turned out and were accredited on-site. But this makeshift guideline was overruled in post-election litigation. Now, the guideline has been entrenched in the Electoral Act.

Legislative reform is only part of the political risk equation. The political environment, security and application of the law are others. On this front:

  1. The risk of election violence is especially elevated in the southeast where militias linked to a separatist movement are disrupting everyday life. On 15 April, INEC suspended voter registration in parts of Imo state after unidentified attackers stopped ongoing registration at one center and killed an INEC official. Militias have been enforcing a sit-at-home order in the southeast every Monday since August 2021 (See: Businesses shut in Nigeria’s southeast over detention of separatist leader).

  2. INEC appears to be struggling to improve the reliability of the voter register. Voter turnout for the 2019 presidential election was 36% – the lowest ever in the country. However, that does not account for the unknown number of deceased or inactive voters in INEC’s database. Chairman Mahmood Yakubu said last year that the commission did not have adequate data on deaths (See: Nigeria 2023 voting patterns and political risk). [3] The data gained from the current phase of voter registration has also been significantly defective. Yakubu said this month that around 45% of new records between June 2021 and January 2022 have been found invalid due to multiple registration and incomplete data – with INEC staff complicit.[4]

  3. Finally, Nigeria’s electorate is increasingly vulnerable due to the state of the economy. Unemployment has more than tripled since 2015, inflation is 16% and the poverty rate is above 50% in nearly half of the 36 states.[5] Many voters are inclined to vote candidates in exchange for cash at the polling booths. Vote-buying remains rampant.

Outlook – Transformative impact

The Appeal Court has been approached to review the judgement concerning Section 84(12) of the Electoral Act that deals with the resignation of political appointees. The case will be heard next on 4 May, and a ruling will clarify the status of Section 84(12) before party primaries are held at the end of the month.

However the Appeals Court rules, INEC will go into the 2023 general elections with more powers to exert its independence and prevent rigging. But the transformative impact of recent legislative reforms will be limited by external developments beyond the commission’s control. Inadequate cooperation from other political actors may also undermine reforms. Law enforcement remains weak and the political commitment to change is not yet concrete.

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[1] He did this citing a highly controversial court ruling in March.

[2] We won’t tolerate holding our officials hostage, INEC warns politicians (March 2019). Channels TV.

[3] 2023: INEC seeks list of dead politicians, public servants from NPC (September 2021). Daily Trust.

[4] CVR: INEC uncovers 1.3m invalid registrations, to prosecute culpable officials (April 2022). Guardian Nigeria.

[5] 2019 poverty and inequality in Nigeria (May 2020). Nigerian Bureau of Statistics

Photo credit: Commonwealth Secretariat, Nigeria Elections 2019

Nana Ampofo