Sierra Leone’s new census figures favour ruling party ahead of 2023 elections

There is political tension in Sierra Leone this month following the release of population figures from a census held in December 2021. The development is significant because the census is a key fixture in the buildup to general elections scheduled for June 2023 (background here).

The latest results show an extraordinary rise in population in districts where the ruling Sierra Leone People’s Party (SLPP) draws the most support. Indeed, the government’s motive was questioned from the outset and the process was marred by a crackdown on the opposition, while technical and financial problems also punctured credibility. The precedent from the last election cycle indicates that new census figures may give the ruling party an electoral advantage through the reallocation of seats in the national parliament and the composition of the voter register.

Significance – Counting and politics

Statistics Sierra Leone announced on 31 May that the national population has increased by 6% to 7.5 million since the last census was held in 2015.[1] The main source of controversy here is the regional distribution for the new figures. The population in all SLPP strongholds grew by more than 25%, while the population mostly fell or was unchanged in districts where the opposition All People’s Congress (APC) has the largest number of supporters. For example, the census suggests that more people now live in Bo and Kenema districts (both SLPP) than in the country’s capital Freetown (APC). The population in the capital even fell by 43% from 1,055,964 to 606,701.

The patterns are similar to those shown in the results that were declared after the 2015 census – except that the APC was the ruling party at the time and that year’s results appeared to favour the party and not the SLPP. Indeed, President Maada Bio said in the buildup to the latest census that it was conceived to ‘correct the anomaly’ of the last census in 2015.

Observers say the 2015 census officials were hired based on partisan interests, that population figures were inflated in APC strongholds and that Statistics Sierra Leone organised its processes in a way that ultimately benefitted the APC as the then-ruling party. The census was eventually used to change electoral boundaries and create new constituency seats in the national parliament before the 2018 general elections. The result was that a new region was created in the APC’s northern base and the party’s regions gained 15 new seats in parliament compared to five for SLPP regions.

Census figures also affected the composition of the voter register for the 2018 elections. A National Civil Registration Authority (NCRA) was created in 2016 with the power to provide demographic data to the Electoral Commission of Sierra Leone (ECSL) from which an updated voter register would be produced. By the time a voter register was then extracted from the civil records, the number of registered voters had increased by 20% compared to those registered to vote in 2012. Civil society reports say registration figures were highest in APC strongholds.[2] However, the party lost the 2018 presidential election regardless of any perceived advantage.

Outlook – Elections

The electoral commission ECSL has said it will reproduce the voter register for the upcoming elections from NCRA data. New census figures will be reflected in that data and this may give the ruling SLPP an electoral advantage. Electoral benefits may also be in form of additional seats for the party’s regions in the national parliament if the ECSL decides to redraw boundaries before the elections. The commission is constitutionally allowed to do so every five years and has been urged by the ruling party to begin the process. The party presently has around the same number of MPs in parliament as the APC, and it will be able to withstand political resistance to delimitation as it did when the APC opposed this census last year.  

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[1] 2021 midterm population and housing census (May 2022) Statistics Sierra Leone.

[2] Presidential and parliamentary elections in Sierra Leone (March 2018). The Carter Center.

Photo credit: Social Income

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