Niger on the edge

President Mohamed Bazoum was detained and deposed by officers from the presidential guard on Weds (26 Jul). Two days after, head of the unit, General ‘Omar’ Abdourahamane Tchiani, appeared on the state-owned broadcaster Télé Sahel declaring himself president of the ‘national council for the safeguarding of the homeland’ i.e., the head of state[1].

1.     Who is Tchiani?

  • Background. According to diverse reports, Tchiani is from Filingué in Niger’s Tillaberi region, is 62 years of age and established leader of the presidential guard.

  • Professional history. He was appointed to that role in 2011 and then promoted to the rank of general in 2018 by Niger’s former head of state, Mahamadou Issoufou (2011-2021 administration). He is associated with modernisation of the unit and blocking several coup attempts. Prior experience includes roles as a military attaché for Niger in Germany and as a battalion commander in Agadez, Niger[2].

  • Coup(s). Despite his role thwarting a coup attempt that would have stopped Bazoum taking office and succeeding Issoufou in 2021, relations between the two reportedly soured to the extent that Bazoum was expected to imminently introduce reforms that would reduce or remove his dependence on Omar[3]. Instead there was the 26 July coup.

  • Policy and allegiances. Omar is described as a loyalist of the former president Mahamadou Issoufou. In his national address, he justified the coup in criticism of a Bazoum security strategy that “excludes any genuine collaboration with Burkina Faso and Mali, even though we share the Liptako-Gourma zone, where most of the terrorist group activities we are fighting against are concentrated”[4].

2.     Context?

This is Niger’s fifth post-independence coup and, if sustained, it ends the country’s third attempt at multiparty democracy. It is the fourth country in the ECOWAS region to succumb to a coup since 2020 – Mali, Guinea and Burkina Faso are its predecessors. Chad and Sudan, which are also in the Sahel but outside ECOWAS, have also experienced unrest. Sudan’s crisis is ongoing.

3.     Outlook?

Condemnation has come from ECOWAS, the African Union, France and the United States. Praise from Russia. Meanwhile, Tchiani has called on “the technical and financial partners and friends of Niger to understand the specific situation of our country and provide all necessary support to help it overcome the challenges it faces”.

Key questions are whether (a) Tchiani will remain in power, Bazoum in detention, (b) whether the new junta will announce plans for democratic transition credible and timely enough to satisfy Western partners, and (c) whether African regional economic community (REC), European and American policy dynamics will respond in a way that allows continued engagement with Nigerien authorities even under these circumstances.

The balance of risk is that Bazoum’s ouster will stand, that the junta will struggle to announce satisfactory transition plans and that its approach to security will be difficult for the West to swallow i.e., deeper collaboration with Burkina Faso and Mali, and negotiation with non-state armed groups. This is a daunting in-tray for ECOWAS’ new chairman, Preisdent Bola Tinubu of Nigeria. However, there is a narrow path away from this worst-case scenario paved by the following facts: (a) Tchiani’s godfather Issoufou is a veteran of Nigerien democratisation, (b) if Niger is abandoned, the Sahel is abandoned, and (c) the presence of Russia and the Wagner group as an alternative partner may further concentrate minds.

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[1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/28/niger-general-tchiani-named-head-of-transitional-government-after-coup

[2] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/27/who-is-omar-tchiani-the-suspected-brain-behind-niger-coup

[3] https://www.ouest-france.fr/monde/niger/niger-qui-est-le-general-tchiani-lhomme-de-lombre-qui-a-pris-la-tete-du-pays-777db3d8-2d52-11ee-9ed4-23979a02fab5

[4] https://www.firstpost.com/explainers/who-is-omar-tchiani-the-general-behind-niger-coup-who-has-declared-himself-leader-12930612.html

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Nana Ampofo