As "ADO " Tries to Add Another Term, Opposition Boycotts Ivorian Polls Today
Ivorians head to the polls today (Saturday) with at least two outcomes being certain. Firstly, that incumbent President Alassane Ouattara (often referred to as ‘ADO’) will stand virtually unopposed on the ballot sheet and secondly, the real opposition will be on the streets, as leading parties call for a nationwide boycott of the vote.
Main Findings - Predictability with business interruption risk
Turnout in the elections is expected to be very low – only 41% of voters collected their voters’ ID cards within the mandated period that ended on Sunday[1] and those on the ground are wary of the potential for violence at polling stations. Disillusionment has tugged away at the electorate as the political space has become smaller in the build-up to polling day, namely with Ouattara’s volte face in July by throwing his hat into the ring to contest a third term, and the electoral commission disqualifying 40 of the 44 candidates from the contest. The crescendo of consternation from the opposition has ultimately resulted in a boycott of the two leading opposition figures: former president Henry Konan Bedieof the Democratic Party of Ivory Coast – African Democratic Rally (PDCI-RDA) and Pascal Affi Nguessan, of the Popular Ivorian Front (FPI). Their only discernible stances relate to the election itself - Ouattara should not stand and the electoral commission (CEI) needs reforming. That leaves the door wide open for ADO to zero in on his Malinke and Senoufo support bases while promising prosperity for the average Ivorian. His only challenger now that the boycott is on, is 51 year-old Independent, Kouadio Konan Bertin, who has held ministerial positions since 2000, but who doesn’t present a credible challenge to the 78 year old incumbent.
Business interruption risk is high. In a potential example of the Pareto principle, a minority of civilians taking part in the civil disobedience ever since the opposition candidates called for an active boycott, has been grabbing major headlines. Offices of the electoral commission and political parties have been ransacked, buses have been burnt and roadblocks set up; reportedly more than 20 people have lost their lives. More worryingly, some inter-ethnic clashes have been taking place: last week in Dabou and earlier in the year in Daoukro and Bongouanou – primarily opposition strongholds. Some 35,000 members of the armed forces have been deployed across the country, which includes former rebels from 2010. Promised reforms have not been forthcoming leading to minor mutinies in 2017 and 2018. Factions of the military are still loyal to Guillaume Soro – former rebel leader turned PM and ex President, Laurent Gbagbo- yet with neither man in the country, their influence on the military has diminished. Ivorians have been stockpiling for the weekend, to shore up against any flare-ups and e-commerce platforms are expected to be well-utilised while some Abidjan residents are moving out of the city to less congested parts of the country.
There has been little criticism of Ouattara’s third term candidacy from international partners be that ECOWAS, the African Union, the United Nations, the United States or former colonial power France. Mediation efforts by ECOWAS proved futile with neither the government nor the opposition willing to move from their entrenched positions and no meeting has been held between the two sides.
Conclusion - Fatigue vs insecurity
A non-participatory opposition poses the greatest risk to peace in Cote d’Ivoire at present and its unified stance that ADO should not be contesting is compelling. What this means is that security risk is heightening, impacting negatively on supply chain risk in the movement of goods and people. But the sense on the ground is that the saving grace could be war fatigue. As unpalatable as an unconstitutional third term of the incumbent may be for the opposition, a repeat of 2010 would be worse.
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[1] ID cards can also be collected on the day of the election.