Magufuli keeps the presidency and near absolute parliamentary control via Tanzania 2020 elections

President John Magufuli won the presidential election held on 28 October with 84% of votes. Magufuli’s party CCM also won 262 out of 264 parliament seats, while opposition parties won only two seats. Half of registered voters did not vote. That is fewer than in 2015 when voter turnout was higher at 67%.

Election observers from the East African Community said they were satisfied with the process, but most others point to recent government rules repressing press freedom and political rights. They also point to the electoral commission’s disqualification of opposition candidates before the polls and alleged vote fraud during the polls. Tanzania Elections Watch says the electoral commission ‘failed to meet basic standards of the administration of justice’ in dealing with opposition aspirants.

The two major opposition parties Chadema and ACT have rejected the results and want the elections done afresh with an independent body’s supervision. They planned to demonstrate indefinitely from today. Meanwhile, police have arrested Chadema chair Freedom Mbowe and other leaders.

Significance - Democratic space

CCM has governed Tanzania since the country’s independence and was the only political party until 1992. CCM’s dominance continued despite the multi-party system established that year – usually winning between 65% and 80% of votes – with the opposition rejecting the outcome.

However, this time the scale of defeat under questionable circumstances and the spectre of emboldened one-party rule appears to have provoked a larger than usual reaction from the opposition parties.

Their options are limited by a constitution which says that the presidential election result cannot be challenged in court once the electoral commission has announced a winner, however they may pursue other avenues. For example, this will be the first time in 25 years that the opposition will organise demonstrations after general elections.

Outlook - Economic nationalism

Magufuli’s reelection and his party’s almost absolute control of parliament will tilt policymaking toward more nationalism and government intervention. In his first term he banned sugar and coal imports to boost local production, and he forced Barrick Gold’s Acacia Mining to pay more royalties and sell a stake of its mines in the country to the government. Magufuli now has more political capital to press on with such unilateral policies.

Without pressure from regional leaders or the rest of the international community (unlikely), these election results will likely stand and opposition will be put down.

The fall in voter turnout suggests government repression has produced political apathy, which will limit the opposition’s ability to withstand the government. On that note, the opposition’s stance on the latest elections will not yield desired outcomes without sufficient popular backing.

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