One year on power tussle blocks #EndSARS and police reform in Nigeria
It is now one year since a deadly army crackdown on the #EndSARS movement here in Lagos. The primary motive for the young campaigners was to demand police reform, but the government put down the uprising once it sensed that sentiments had evolved from being anti-police to anti-government. With this view, authorities have taken few concrete steps toward reforming the police or ensuring justice for people who suffered brutality before and during the crackdown.
A year ago, our baseline scenario was that leading #EndSARS figures would recoil and protesters would be unable to regroup in a significant manner. We forecast that new political events would overtake the movement and the threat of another crackdown would prohibit long-term agitation. We also forecast that there would be little policing reform in the end because legal, political and fiscal constraints would impair outcomes. This scenario has happened (See: Nigeria and its #EndSARS turning point). Looking forward again, a power tussle ahead of 2023 elections is impeding reform and slowing government business – putting more pressure on the operating environment.
Significance – Obstacles before change
One enduring political factor during the #EndSARS uprising was the division between the country’s north and south. The protests mostly spread through southern cities where President Muhammadu Buhari (from northern Katsina) is unpopular. Therefore, the northern elite (including those in government) viewed the protests as a ploy to unseat the president and also rob the north of political power. The result was a split along ethnic line wherein state governors in the south tacitly supported #EndSARS or appeared neutral, but northern state governors flatly opposed the movement.[1] Those divisions have metastasized ahead of general elections in 2023. For example:
Companies are presently caught in the middle of a dispute between the federal government and two southern states, Lagos and Rivers, over who should collect Value Added Tax (VAT). The high court ruled in August this year that it was unconstitutional for the federal government to tax consumption within a state. Lagos and Rivers then enacted their own VAT law and were supported by other southern state governments. But they were soon countered by northern state governors. Now five northern states have applied to join FIRS in its appeal against the two southern states.
Nigeria’s political establishment has an informal agreement to alternate power between the north and south every eight years – and it will be the south’s turn when Buhari completes his second four-year term in 2023. However, this is not guaranteed and there is an ongoing tussle in the background over which region will produce the next president.
Meanwhile, political unrest persists even though the #EndSARS movement has since dissipated. For example, the ongoing trial of separatist leader Nnamdi Kanu is fanning violence in the southeast where a militia linked to his movement poses business interruption risk. This unidentified militia has carried out a series of targeted attacks in that region where civilians have been killed and government facilities have been destroyed (See: Southeastern Nigeria gubernatorial election at risk).
Outlook – Reboot
Our earlier baseline scenario on #EndSARS is expected to continue over the medium term. Authorities are more focused on political stability than reform as the country goes into a critical election campaign season. The bandwidth for policymaking is consequently limited for the next 18 months. This leaves popular grievances about governance largely unaddressed, contributing to a trend of violent crime that we are seeing on the ground – around the country. The 2023 polls present the most feasible chance for authorities to reboot the system of governance and revisit the state of policing alongside other structural problems that currently undermine the operating environment.
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[1] Northern governors oppose SARS ban (October 2020). Daily Trust.
Photo credit: Samson Maxwell
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