Setback in municipal elections could unnerve South Africa’s ruling ANC
South Africa's African National Congress (ANC) is on track again to win the 1 November municipal elections as expected – but by a lower margin. The ruling party had 46% of votes by the time 93% of nationwide results had been released by Wednesday night. But the ruling party did better in the last municipal elections held in 2016 with 54% of nationwide votes.
The latest results show that ANC is struggling to reverse a widespread decline in popularity especially in its bases. For example, ANC won 58% of total votes in KwaZulu-Natal (that includes key port city Durban) when municipal elections were last held, but so far it has won only 42% of votes there. Overall, this week’s results also indicate that the ruling party will have to either enter into coalitions or be in opposition in many areas of the country that it previously controlled.
Failing to win at least 50% of municipal votes nationwide would have no direct impact on national government, but it sends a warning that the party could lose its majority in parliament when voters elect a new national government in 2024. In the meantime, this shift in popular backing could reduce the steadiness of policymaking by the ANC-led national government.
Significance – Road to 2024
The biggest gainers as voters seek fresh ideas with these municipal polls have been smaller parties such as Action SA – not the ANC’s main rivals Democratic Alliance (DA) and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF). The poll results show that the two major opposition parties have only profited marginally from the ANC’s decline at the grassroots.[1] DA, for instance, faced a backlash in the buildup to this week’s polls because of its campaign posters in Phoenix, KwaZulu-Natal that were widely perceived to be racially offensive.[2]
In the ANC’s case, the party went into these elections on an especially tumultuous note. The party had splintered as Ramaphosa’s faction tried to enforce a party rule that all members facing trial for corruption must step aside. The party was particularly divided by the removal of secretary-general Ace Magashule using this rule and the trial of Ramaphosa’s predecessor Jacob Zuma, who was sentenced to prison in July for refusing to cooperate with a commission of inquiry that was probing corruption during his tenure. The riots that followed Zuma’s imprisonment shook the party at its bases (See: South Africa unrest sets back Ramaphosa’s bid to reorient ANC).
With that background, this week’s municipal polls were an early test of ANC’s preparedness for general elections that will be held in 2024. It won the last National Assembly elections in 2019 by 57% of the votes, but that was its smallest percentage share since apartheid ended in 1994 and it weakened the party’s capacity to direct governance. Now, for instance, the party is struggling to push through legislation that would clarify the terms of land expropriation. Its talks with EFF to jointly advance the proposed legislation were deadlocked in July.
Outlook – Political cost of reforms
The ANC will look to regroup before December 2022 when it will hold its next conference to elects new national leaders who will lead the party into 2024 general elections. The significance of the current electoral setback and the implicit threat to ANC’s parliamentary majority means that much political bandwidth will be devoted to rebuilding party cohesion before this pivotal conference. Government policymaking will progress less steadily in this environment as the ruling party weighs its declining popularity against the political cost of reforms.
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[1] Municipal election results 2000 to 2021 (November 2021). Independent Electoral Commission.
[2] Sparks fly over DA’s Phoenix campaign posters (October 2021). eNCA.
Photo: Donkin Terrace, Kay-africa, CC BY-SA 3.0
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