Tanzania’s ruling CCM firmly in charge despite Magufuli’s death

Vice President (VP) Samia Suluhu announced on 17 March that President John Magufuli had died of a heart problem. The constitution states that the VP should succeed the late president and complete the rest of his term. Suluhu would also be required to name a new VP after conferring with the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM). This nomination must be confirmed by at least 50% of parliament.

Significance – Change in tone and substance

Suluhu has been VP since 2015, but she was not a prominent figure in the Magufuli cabinet or in the CCM before now. Her highest political position previously was as union affairs minister under the VP during Jakaya Kikwete’s second tenure (2010 to 2015).

While Magufuli was viewed in the country as autocratic, Suluhu is thought to be more inclined to collaborate with others and tolerate dissent. One civil society leader in Dar es Salaam told us she will ‘lead with love’ as president, noting her remarkable visit to Magufuli critic Tundu Lissu in hospital in 2017. Lissu had survived an assassination attempt as the government curtailed civil liberties and cracked down on opposition.

Assuming Suluhu is sworn in as president, she will inherit Magufuli’s cabinet, which includes Prime Minister Kassim Majaliwa who has spearheaded Magufuli’s industrialisation agenda, and Foreign Affairs Minister Palamagamba Kabudi who has been chiefly involved in negotiations with Total for the East African Crude Oil Pipeline. See: All eyes on the bottom line as Uganda forges ahead with oil pipeline plans.

Meanwhile, Magufuli was CCM chairman and his passing means the party has to choose a new chair and a new secretary-general to replace Bashiru Ally, whom the late president appointed in February as his chief of staff and head of the public service.

Outlook – The party has leverage

Events in neighbouring Malawi in 2012 after then-president Bingu wa Mutharika died in office are a useful analytical reference point. Mutharika’s Vice-President and immediate successor Joyce Banda took charge and dismissed the cabinet within 18 months starting with Mutharika’s brother Peter, who later defeated her in the 2014 election.

In Tanzania, under a President Suluhu, such drastic cabinet changes are less likely. Suluhu was close to Magufuli and continues to demonstrate her commitment to CCM, unlike Banda whose relations with Mutharika and the ruling party had soured. Further, CCM holds nearly all elective seats in parliament and is therefore capable of constitutionally removing an uncooperative president.

In that context, CCM will ultimately determine the next president and vice president. The party’s most senior leaders in the central committee will meet this Saturday on next steps for the party and the government. The delay in swearing in Suluhu outright suggests that party leaders are divided on how to reconfigure both in a post-Magufuli era, and Suluhu stands in the way of rival CCM groups plotting a path to power in 2025 even if the VP takes charge now.

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Image: John Magufuli. Credit: Flickr, Paul Kagame

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