Cote d’Ivoire following the loss of a second prime minister in 8 months

Cote d’Ivoire has lost two prime ministers in the space of 8 months. Hamed Bakayoko lost his battle with cancer whilst receiving treatment in Germany on 10 March. This follows the death of Amadou Gon Coulibaly in July 2020. Ongoing fallout from the 2010-11 civil war, the 2020-21 political cycle as well as internal ruling party competition will test the Ouattara administration in their absence.

Significance - Mediation required

These deaths are politically significant. Gon Coulibaly’s was the stated catalyst for President Alassane Ouattara’s decision to run for a third term that led to deadly protests and an opposition boycott of the October presidential election[1].

Following opposition attempts to establish a parallel government, it was efforts by Bakayoko that got all parties to sit down and dialogue – leading the opposition to agree to field candidates in the just-ended legislative elections. Further talks are due to start in the coming weeks centring on reforms of the Commission Électorale Indépendante (CEI) that is responsible for organising and conducting elections. Whilst an opposition presidential candidate, Kouadio Konan Bertin, has been appointed as the National Minister for Reconcialiation, it was clear that Bakayoko was the master convener.

With the imminent return of former president, Laurent Gbagbo, after a decade in exile, reconciliation and political reform are going to be key required deliverables for Ouattara’s third term. This will (with time) reinforce the bargaining position of the Front Populaire Ivoirien (FPI). Party cohesion had been fractured in Gbagbo’s absence.

Outlook - Jockeying for position

Government’s mediation powers without Bakayoko will be tested by intra-party competition and ongoing challenges to the conduct and result of the legislative elections.

A leading opposition Democratic Party of Cote d’ivoire (PDCI) candidate, Kouassi Kouamé Patrice, who lost his seat in the administrative capital of Yamoussoukro, has made accusations of vote rigging. He’s been refused an audience with the Constitutional Council who hold the mandate to hear such disputes.

There will be protracted lobbying and potential infighting amongst the ruling RHDP not only for the role of Prime Minster but also for the successor of Alassane Ouattara. The timing of the appointment of Patrick Achi as interim prime minister (on 8 March, only two days before the passing of Bakayoko) would suggest that he currently leads the race to hold the position permanently.

[1] Gon Coulibaly was also the presidential candidate for the ruling Rassemblement des houphouëtistes pour la démocratie et la paix (RHDP).

Photo Credit: Boulevard de Gaulle, fr.zil, CC BY-SA 2.0

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