President Sassou Nguesso wins another presidential term in office
To little surprise, after 37 years in power, Dennis Sassou-Nguesso appears to have been re-elected in the Sunday (21 March) presidential polls. According to provisional results from the electoral commission, Nguesso drew 88.57% of the vote alongside 67.55% turnout. Challenges are anticipated but lack leverage.
Significance – Tense status quo affirmed
Although the constitution provides for a multiparty system, and seven candidates ran this year, democratic legitimacy is limited.
Opponents of the president were decrying an atmosphere of hostility and a lack of transparency even prior to Sunday’s vote, the main opposition party – Union panafricaine pour la démocratie sociale (UPADS) – boycotted the polls, and around 1,000 observers from the Catholic church[1] were denied accreditation. Voting itself took place amid a heavy security presence on the streets of major cities with cars being banned and only movement by foot allowed. Internet access was blocked, and many people reported text messages also not being sent. Other significant development in this political cycle include:
The UPADS having declined to field a candidate has called for a period of transition until 2023 when a fresh vote should be held.
The next most viable opposition candidate, Guy-Brice Parfait Kolélas of the Mouvement Congolais pour la Démocratie et le Développement Intégral (MCDDI) died on the evening of the vote whilst being flown to France for treatment for Covid-19[2].
In the background of these elections is severe economic distress. The economy contracted by an estimated 6.8% year-on-year in 2020[3] and growth is expected to come in at only 0.5% for this year. Recovery plans are threatened by heavy reliance on oil (over 80% of export revenues) in an era of subdued prices and global aspirations toward decarbonisation. Congo benefits from other mineral resources, however price volatility is reproduced here, as are governance constraints.
Outlook – Challenges with little leverage
Constitutionally, any legal challenges must be filed within three days of the announcement of election results, and several opposition candidates have already stated their intention to do so. One argument that may be used is a provision within the constitution (Article 70) that allows for a postponement of the ballot if a confirmed candidate dies before the first round of voting. Some opposition candidates are also questioning the speed with which the results were announced, claiming that not all results had been transmitted from the regions to headquarters before a declaration was made.
Neither these legal challenges are or the UPADS call for a transition period pending fresh elections are likely to amount to much. Although it is not within its powers to declare on the matter, the electoral commission has already said that the Article 70 argument cannot be applied in this instance and it would be a fair assumption to think that the judiciary and constitutional council would act in favour of a president that has been in power for 37 years. Regardless of alleged bias, the time of death of Koleas will likely have been after the time of the closure of the poll.
Public support for a protracted period of uncertainty, and possible violence, associated with a long transition process is low.
[1] Which has been a vocal critic of the government
[2] He had only been diagnosed on the Friday before the poll.
[3] More than double estimated contraction for the region as a whole
Photo credit: Ulrichmfd, CC
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