Top figure in Nigeria’s ruling party under corruption probe ahead of 2023 polls
A letter published in the local press last week shows that President Muhammadu Buhari’s top associate Bola Tinubu is being investigated by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) for alleged corruption. The former Lagos governor (1999 to 2007) was last charged in 2011 for allegedly violating a code for public officials by operating foreign bank accounts while in office. He was acquitted of those charges.
Significance – Stakeholders with rival ambitions
This new EFCC probe appears to have begun after the agency’s chairman Ibrahim Magu was removed for alleged corruption in July 2020. Magu was removed while he contended with the justice minister Abubakar Malami for control over the agency.
Since Buhari’s powerful chief of staff Abba Kyari died in April 2020, the justice minister Malami has been expanding his political influence while the president has maintained his usual aloof stance. The new EFCC chairman Abdulrasheed Bawa (who signed the Tinubu letter) is associated with the minister.
Tinubu and Buhari have been in alliance since their All Progressives Congress (APC) was formed in 2014 through a party merger. Since that merger, Buhari has relied on Tinubu’s immense influence in Lagos and the rest of the southwest. Tinubu is the most influential politician in Lagos such that all governors elected there after him have been his chosen candidates. For example, when Tinubu refused to back the incumbent Akinwunmi Ambode for a second term in 2019, Ambode was replaced as the APC gubernatorial candidate – having himself risen to the position with Tinubu’s endorsement.
Now, Tinubu is thought to be interested in running for president in 2023 when Buhari’s final term ends. This purported ambition seems to have pitted Tinubu against other Buhari allies such as Malami who want to pick the president’s successor.
Outlook – Electoral arithmetic and the balance of power
An unwritten rule in Nigerian politics is that the presidency must oscillate between the north and south. This indicates that Buhari, from northern Katsina, will hand over to a new president from the south in 2023. However, the northern political establishment still has the upper hand to determine this successor because the region is in a superior electoral position. For instance, three out of 19 northern states produced more votes than nearly half the 18 states in the south in the 2019 presidential election.
Buhari won that election even though he got far fewer votes in Lagos compared to 2015. This has demonstrated that he is now less reliant on the southwest and it will embolden his associates looking to outdo Tinubu in 2023.
Meanwhile, Malami and others in Buhari’s inner circle will continue to direct governance while the president remains in the background. That includes the direction of anti-corruption efforts.
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Image credit: Asiwaju Bola Tinubu. Chatham House, CC BY 2.0