Ghana's promise - Independence Day reflections
This weekend, Ghana celebrated 64 years of independence from Great Britain. Its 64th birthday in effect. That makes this as good a time as any to consider what and where this country is.
Continuity
One thing that stands out is the extent to which Ghana’s political norms have been shaped by a cast of characters and conceits still on the scene today. For example, President Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo (NADAA) and the speaker of parliament Alban Bagbin, two of the most powerful individuals in the country, were born before Ghana won its independence. All the substantive ministers, and every parliamentarian bar one[1], were born before the 1992 constitution that restored multiparty democracy and under which Ghana is currently governed. That’s not true for the bulk of the population - the average age in Ghana is 21 (the legal minimum to be a parliamentarian). And even though the country’s roots run deep through time[2], if we were to look at the families from which these elite in the executive, in parliament and in business have been drawn, I suspect we would find a surprising degree of continuity.
In important ways then, whatever Ghana is, it is the creation of a group of extant persons, households and ideas. No need to imagine the myths and motivations underlying its founding. You can ask somebody. Or perhaps examine some very recent words; for instance, those of President NADAA at the funeral of former president JJ Rawlings. They tell us important things about Ghana’s conception of itself:
Rival political traditions: As told by NADAA, he and JJ Rawlings were antagonists when Rawlings launched his first coup in 1979, his second in 1981 and throughout the 11 years of military government that followed, as well as Rawlings’ time as lodestone of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) political party. They were vocal opponents again when Akufo-Addo served in the 2001-2009 New Patriotic Party (NPP) administration. Their later friendship speaks to the maturity of the system.
Constitutionalism and the rule of law: NADAA praised Rawlings for setting “the enviable precedent, which has since guided our country, of respecting the two-term limit of the Presidency and superintending the orderly transfer of power to his democratically-elected successor”. NADAA has just begun his second term in office. And his December 2020 rival, former president John Dramani Mahama, yesterday bowed to the authority of the courts overruling his case against the 2020 election results. See: Ghana’s Election Result Upheld as Supreme Court Dismisses Opposition Petition.
Regional pioneer: He also spoke of Rawlings’ time as head of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) Authority of Heads of State and Government. Something taken up by all Rawlings’ successors bar one. Ghana will now also play host to the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) secretariat.
Complexity
The question is whether this framework is equal to the challenges and opportunities of the moment. Times have changed in marked ways. At the start of the Fourth Republic (1992), Ghana had a population of 15.7 million. It has doubled since, while the proportion living in urban areas has gone up from 38% to 57% according to the most recent World Bank figures. In real terms, GDP has grown by a factor of four and per capita income has more than doubled. In 1992, around 52% of the population lived below the national poverty line whereas the 2016 estimate was 23.4%. Ghana is still a major producer of gold and cocoa, but it added hydrocarbons to the mix after December 2010 – to the extent that medium-term development plans written before the pandemic were premised in part on further expansion of oil and gas projects.
Despite these gains, rank and file expectations sit far above what has been achieved. In the most recent Afrobarometer survey, 39.9% of respondents described economic conditions as very bad, 25% said they were bad and 5.6% said neither good nor bad. Only 30% described conditions as either fairly good or very good. Part of this is explained by the fact that (a) income creation over the years has not been evenly distributed across the country, and (b) Ghana has not since independence or the advent of the fourth republic slain its three monsters in chief – poor public financial management, inadequate governance and stunted industrialisation.
Revenue mobilisation for the past two years came in above target according to the government’s own figures, nevertheless the 2020 fiscal deficit is estimated to have reached approximately 11% of GDP last year, arrears are once again impacting local businesses, and public debt is projected to exceed 75% of GDP. Of course, COVID-19 has played its role e.g., emergency expenditure and stalling oil and gas projects, however in truth, this ailment predates the pandemic.
Governance failings in Ghana are less aggressive and more predictable than in major neighbouring markets; nevertheless, they are a consistent feature on the landscape. So too is the way in which party affiliation and the party whip can drive public procurement and large-scale contracts to the detriment of the long-term interests of the state. In August 2020, the government inked plans to direct gold mining royalties into a new special purpose vehicle, which would be listed in the UK. The project was opposed by the Special Prosecutor Martin Amidu, the Minister of Justice/Attorney General Gloria Akuffo and significant public opinion. In November, Amidu resigned and in January Akuffo was shuffled out of cabinet. The plan is still on the books.
Industrialisation was an aspiration when Kwame Nkrumah led Ghana to independence in 1957, and it remains just that now. In fact, despite the structural transformation referenced above, manufacturing accounted for 10% of GDP in 1957 and it is around 11% of GDP today. In 2019, 75% of Ghanaian imports and 5% of exports were manufactured goods. Shifting this imbalance is important for addressing strategic vulnerabilities around the balance of payments and currency stability.
Conclusion
Ghana’s political religion is moderation. Adherence is not perfect, even among its proponents, and there are of course rival systems of belief. Still, this is what predominates. And it has explanatory power. Be it the 28 years of continuous multiparty democracy thus far, bouts of organisational lethargy or the inclusion of the gold lion and St George’s Cross reminiscent of Britain on Ghana’s coat of arms. More often that not, Ghanaian decision makers seek a middle path. The trouble is when that also means a middling performance. The challenges and opportunities over the next 64 years, even the next four years, are a different order of magnitude.
Moreover, peace and stability cannot be taken for granted. Riots in February 1948 were among the signature events leading Ghana, then the Gold Coast, to independence. It began with unarmed former World War II servicemen in Accra but spread wider. Colonial authorities launched an investigation afterwards to better understand its causes. Among other things, the 'Commission of Enquiry into Disturbances in the Gold Coast' found that the mismatch between economic expectations and economic realities was a major contributor:
“So far as the economic life of the country is concerned, we were struck by the high costs of production ruling in the Gold Coast. Many of the commodities, both industrial and agricultural, the export of which it is hoped to develop in the future, would be too costly to compete in world markets. It is essential therefore, if the commercial aspirations of the people are to be realised, that productivity be increased”.
Ghana should be encouraged by the ground covered in the last 64 years, though there have been disappointments. Much has been done, there is much still to be done.
[1] Kwabre East MP Francisca Oteng Mensah
[2] Archaeological records date back three millennia
* Photo (c) Songhai Advisory
** This piece was originally published on Linkedin on Saturday, 6 March
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