Senegalese socio-political frustrations spill on to the streets.

Over the past week, Senegal has been rocked by deadly protests with up to 10 people killed across the country. The immediate spur for unrest is the arrest of a prominent opposition leader, Ousmane Sonko. However, growing frustrations with social conditions in the country have indubitably become a contributing factor.

Significance – It’s about more than the individual

Ousmane Sonko is the leader of Patriote du Sénégal pour le Travail, l'Ethique et la Fraternité (PASTEF), a political party founded in 2014.

In the 2019 election, he placed third with 16% and has seen his following grow rapidly particularly amongst young people. In January, he was accused of the rape of a masseuse and, following the removal of his parliamentary immunity, he was arrested on 3rd March. After being held in custody, he was released under judicial supervision[1] on 8th March. The charges are seen by his supporters and other opposition leaders as politically motivated. There is precedent for this, Karim Wade was barred from standing in the 2019 election over corruption charges.

Agitations amongst the youth are plentiful. Despite positive top line figures, per capita GDP growth in Senegal pre-COVID 19 was approximately 1.7% year on year compared to 7.1% in Ethiopia, 5.9% in Rwanda and 4.1% in Ghana[2]. To quote an official at a local think tank: “the elites in Senegal and everywhere else in the region do not realise that there may be dozens, if not hundreds of thousands of young people deprived of prospects, with a difficult daily life, complicated housing conditions, young people who feel a lot of frustrations.”

COVID-19 and measures to combat its threat such as school closures and a curfew in major cities have contributed to pressures and frustrations felt on the ground further still. For example, via food price inflation.

Meanwhile, the aggressive and often violent nature of the protests is accompanied by a heavy-handed response from the security services, which has accounted for the reported deaths.

Outlook – Risks remain

In the short term, it appears that Sonko’s release has somewhat appeased protesters though he has called for larger, peaceful protests in the coming days. More incendiary language such as Sonko’s declaration that “the revolution has already started and nobody can stop it” is likely only to draw further criticism from those in government and widen the target on his back.

The manner in which proceedings against Sonko are handled will be highly indicative of the intentions of Macky Sall. There are widespread concerns that he is ultimately seeking a constitutional amendment that would allow him to stand for a (currently illegitimate) third term in office. If this were to play out, we could see similar protests and reactions to what was witnessed in 2020 to similar moves from the leaders of Guinea and Cote d’Ivoire.

[1] With a requirement to surrender his passport and report to the courts every two weeks

[2] 2009-2018 average

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