Why are Nigeria's MPs demanding a nationwide state of emergency?
This week, two students kidnapped from a university in northern Kaduna were found dead and three students were abducted from a university in northern Benue. Meanwhile, a court and police station in eastern Imo and Ebonyi were targeted in acts of sabotage, while footage of residents fleeing from Boko Haram in Niger state heightened concerns given the state’s proximity to the capital Abuja.
The latest incidents have jolted the country’s political leaders. On Tuesday (27 April), the House of Representatives called on President Muhammadu Buhari to proclaim a nationwide state of emergency. In addition, former Senate president Bukola Saraki (2015 to 2019) urged Buhari to ‘seek help wherever it can be found’ and organise an emergency meeting with all past heads of government.
There are four key drivers of the ongoing security crisis:
1. Loss of legitimacy
Government and law enforcement have significantly lost popular acceptance in many parts of the country. Police are perceived to be corrupt and unable to apply the law impartially, especially during ethnic strife. This general perception is pronounced in the southeast where there is an active separatist movement. Ongoing acts of sabotage in the region appear to be coordinated, with the police as key targets.
There has also been significant rigging in recent elections and declining voter turnout, both undermining the legitimacy of the results. For instance, turnout in an Abia state bye-election in March was only 3%. And next door in Imo State, the current governor, Hope Uzodinma, came fourth in the 2019 election, but the result was disputed and the supreme court sacked the initial winner. The court then ruled in favour of Uzodinma and the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). That extraordinary change in government has since been a source of tension in the state. Last week, a mob set Uzodinma’s house ablaze.
2. Unstable security leadership
Buhari removed the military chiefs in January 2021. By then they had long passed the retirement age and their continued stay in office was untenable. The police inspector-general who was replaced in March had also passed the retirement age and had overspent his tenure. Unduly keeping those officers in charge weakened institutional morale, and the lack of substantive leadership undermined any security reforms.
3. High unemployment
Unemployment in Nigeria has risen from 8% to 33% in the last six years, with two recessions happening in that period. This economic situation has led to a rise in opportunistic violence in the form of kidnapping, banditry and armed robbery. Disillusioned and left with fewer economic opportunities, non-state actors have multiplied rapidly in fragments by taking advantage of the generally weak law enforcement and popular apathy toward the government.
4. Aloof leadership
Buhari has mostly stayed in the background while top members of his administration have jostled to exert their influence over government affairs. As insecurity has worsened, the president has barely been visible at the forefront and his detachment has created the impression of a leadership vacuum. Authorities have consequently seemed disoriented and collaboration has been weak without a central figure. For instance, the last military chiefs were regularly uncooperative when summoned by parliament, and the police head was abruptly removed while he was responding to a prison break. At the time, the president was away in the UK for undisclosed medical reasons.
Outlook
Government leaders will attempt to mount a fresh response to this crisis, but the attempts will be overshadowed by politicking ahead of the 2023 general elections. A lack of cohesion among authorities will also continue to impede change as Buhari serves out his final term in the background.
In that situation, there are unlikely to be significant efforts to rebuild public faith in the government and law enforcement. We note that anti-police protests in October 2020 were violently put down and proposed police reform has been set aside for government priorities. See Nigeria and its #EndSARS turning point.
Law enforcement will remain vulnerable to opportunistic non-state actors responding to weaknesses in the economy and political system.
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Image credit: AMISOM Public Information, CC0
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