New numbers: Ghana's political algebra
Speaker of Parliament Alban Bagbin is a former member of the opposition, chosen over and above the ruling party’s preference, and is willing to flex his muscles. There was every reason to suspect that this would be the case even before he took up his new position. But it is a matter of record now. Exhibit A: his refusal to accept a planned reduction in parliamentary funding. Exhibit B: his appointing opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) general secretary Asiedu Nketia (aka General Mosquito) as a member of the Parliamentary Service Board.
And the very fact that Bagbin is in the puissant position of Speaker is evidence of the dramatic implications of the December 2020 election tally. It would be too much to describe this as a minority government, but with 137 seats for the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP), 137 seats for the NDC and one independent[1], it is no longer guaranteed that the government programme will win the day in parliament. This is something new in the history of the fourth republic[2]. One would expect it to force a change in tactics/strategy in areas open to public view. The president said it would in his 2021 State of the Nation Address. Thus far, it has not.
For example, the cabinet appointments made in recent months do not suggest new avenues of cooperation across party lines or rival support bases. It does not include opposition figures. The traditional NPP support bases – Ashanti, Bono[3], Eastern region – are over-represented, while NDC strongholds like Oti and Volta, as well as Greater Accra, are under-represented. Even if Majority Leader Osei Kyei Mensah Bonsu and Chief Whip Frank Annor Dompreh are able to get NPP legislative priorities over the line, these matters will become campaign talking points in the 2024 general elections.
Identity and representation should be understood as a bread-and-butter issue. One more easily consumed by the average voter than many other topics an administration might prefer to discuss in election season. And it could be a decider at the next set of elections. Twenty-six parliamentary seats spread across 13 regions were determined by 1,000 votes or less in 2020. More than 100 of the total 275 seats were determined by a less than 10% difference in votes for the NPP and the NDC candidate. In other words, it will be difficult to secure power in 2024 without broad geographic appeal.
Clearly, spending decisions are an alternative means of bolstering support. However, this approach is impeded by Ghana’s strained public finances or should be – 11.7% of GDP fiscal deficit and 76.1% of GDP public debt. While cash to politicians without appointments are a governance minefield.
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[1] Andrew Amoako Asiamah is the sole independent MP and has said he will vote with the NPP.
[2] Twenty-eight years
[3] Part of the pre-2016 constitutional reform region, Brong Ahafo.
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