South Africa’s Ramaphosa ‘suspended’ by party’s secretary-general

On 5 May, African National Congress (ANC) secretary-general Ace Magashule announced that he has suspended President Cyril Ramaphosa for alleged corruption in connection with his 2017 campaign for the ANC presidency.

Earlier in the week, the ANC had suspended Magashule for refusing to step aside within 30 days in line with the party’s ultimatum in March (see Political risk scenarios emerging from South African ruling party attempt at discipline). Now Magashule has appealed his own suspension. He has also declared that he and others who appeal this way are thereby reinstated in terms of the ANC constitution. In response, the party has said that the secretary-general remains suspended.

The balance of risk is that this quagmire will continue through the near term at least given the significant political resources on either side of the conflict.

Significance – Ramaphosa vs Magashule

The ANC constitution vests so much authority in the secretary-general that it would be legally questionable to remove him in the current context without his cooperation. For instance, the constitution explicitly authorises the secretary-general to enforce a member’s suspension and determine the terms of that suspension in this context. However, the party has now improvised by turning to deputy secretary-general Jessie Duarte to enforce Magashule’s suspension.

As it stands, Ramaphosa and his rival Magashule are grappling for party control in a deteriorating factional conflict, and the party’s improvised steps point to gaps in the mechanism by which Ramaphosa hopes to consolidate his grip.

First, the party resolved in 2017 that all members who are accused of corruption must step aside whether or not they have been formally charged. The party later considered this resolution impracticable and put it on hold. Then four months after Magashule’s corruption trial began in November, the party amended its resolutions to say that only those who are facing trial must step aside or be suspended. By the time its 30-day deadline elapsed last week, the party was still developing guidelines for members who decide to appeal their suspension. Those guidelines will be considered when the National Executive Council meets this weekend.

Outlook – Standoff

Ramaphosa has sufficient support in the ANC leadership to fend off Magashule and retain his position, but the president will not be able to win this rivalry decisively in the near term within the party’s current legal and political framework. This conflict is unlikely to be resolved by the time local government elections are held in October, and the factional threats against Ramaphosa will limit his administration’s capacity to drive legislation or other long-term policies relevant to the business environment.

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*Photo credit: SIPHIWE SIBEKO / THE ATLANTIC/ REUTERS

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