A month to Ethiopia’s general election: Key issues ahead
House of Representatives and Federal State elections are scheduled to take place on 5 June. Although Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed performance during his first term has been met with mixed reviews – seen as a great reformer by some and a great oppressor by others – his position looks dominant. Nevertheless, the electoral process faces two important challenges:
1. Internal and external consensus
Significant electoral reforms were introduced in 2019 and met some opposition but do not seem to have harmed representativeness with over 8,200 candidates vying for the 512 House of Federation seats[1] and 47 different parties taking part. Similarly, the delay in polls from August 2020 following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic was widely accepted with the notable exception of the breakaway Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) who accused Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s ruling Prosperity Party[2] of attempting to illegitimately hold on to power.
A further blow was dealt to the potential legitimacy of the elections as the European Union decided to cancel its Election Observation Mission only a month to the vote. Government sources say that there were disagreements around the EU wanting to bring in its own satellite communications equipment. The Ethiopian government claimed that the existing domestic infrastructure would be sufficient and also that EU officials refused to avoid criticising the integrity of the process before the poll.
This is not insignificant, the EU has supported the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) with over EUR 20 million in financing for these elections alone, showing the strategic import they place on Ethiopia’s political status.
2. Security situation
A number of regions have seen unrest linked to either ethnic clashes or referenda for more autonomy for the country’s regions. These include Amhara and Oromo. However, the situation in Tigray is central to the polls.
Following the accusation of a power grab, regional elections were held in Tigray in September 2020 with the TPLF winning all 152 seats that were up for grabs, gathering 98% of votes. Further disagreements occurred before the Ethiopian National Defence Forces base in Tigray was attacked on 4 November 2020 by militias allied to the TPLF, leading to a full-blown conflict.
During the conflict, actors on all sides have been accused of crimes against humanity, over 1 million people have allegedly been displaced and the Tigrayan authorities claim that as many as 50,000 civilians may have been killed. The inclusion of Eritrean troops in the conflict (fighting alongside Ethiopian troops against the militias) was a significant incendiary point as was the initial denial that troops had crossed the border. The conflict continues and the promised withdrawal of Eritrean troops has yet to come about.
Officially, the TPLF has been dissolved by the NEBE and it has also been designated a terrorist organisation by the government. As such, the power struggle with Tigray will continue regardless of the election,
Outlook – Pathway to reform
Among the Prosperity Party’s challengers, the most likely to offer substantive opposition is Ethiopian Citizens for Social Justice (ECSJ), formed in 2019 and led by Berhanu Nega. It came about as a merger of 6 parties and is one of the few parties to run on a non-ethnic ticket.
However, there is little doubt that Abiy Ahmed will be re-elected. Unity amongst opposition parties is weak and none alone has the muscle to challenge Prosperity. It is also likely, however, that at least one party will contest the eventual result of the polls. Contested results will lead to an increase in the security risk as the security forces have shown little restraint in quelling civil unrest.
Despite the many issues, there is cause for optimism. For example, the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is a source of regional tension but huge Ethiopian national pride[3]. Concession is therefore particularly difficult pre-election. But there is more room step back from the current brinksmanship if and when an electoral victory is secured, This would most likely take the form of small concessions in AU-led mediation rather than a pause on filling the dam.
These elections take place along the path of Ethiopia’s journey from a closed, militaristic near-dictatorship to, potentially, a democratically free and open economy. The pace of reform is slow, but it is happening; socially, politically and economically. Looking forward, realistic concessions will need to be made to reduce ethnic tensions.
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[1] There are 547 seats in the chamber but 35 were held by TPLF members.
[2] Renamed as such in 2019 following the withdrawal of the TPLF from the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front that had ruled the country since 1991.
[3] Not least because it was financed almost entirely domestically.
*Addis Ababa by night activity Jean Rebiffé, CC
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