Tanzania’s Opposition Demands New Constitution and Electoral Reform

Tanzania’s main opposition party, Chadema, has been touring the country this month to rally its members behind its campaign for electoral reform and constitutional review. Another party named ACT-Wazalendo is also preparing for a nationwide recruitment drive. This is a notable departure from the rules of the road under the late President John Magufuli, under whose tenure (2015-2021), opposition gatherings like these were prohibited. It speaks of a refreshing leadership style in Tanzania’s first ever female head of state, Samia Suluhu, yet given the hegemony of the ruling party, we’re not expecting opposition demands for political reform to be met entirely.

Significance – Bright spots

Under Magufuli, opposition parties were banned from organising rallies. Leaders such as Chadema’s Freeman Mbowe were arrested when they challenged the results of the October 2020 general elections and Magufuli was re-elected with 84% of votes while the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) won nearly all elective seats in parliament.

Suluhu however, has signaled an intention to restore political rights and civil liberties since she took charge in March, when Magufuli died in office. She has ordered the country’s regulators to lift restrictions on social media channels. She has proposed a dialogue with opposition leaders to hear their concerns about the country’s democracy. Furthermore, by-elections organised in May were an improvement on last October’s polls, when opposition figures rejected the results while some fled the country afterward for safety. The United States described the outcome as a ‘downward trajectory of the country’s democracy’.

Now, opposition parties are demanding a new constitution and other legislative changes to improve the electoral process. They want presidential powers reduced, CCM’s hegemony addressed and more checks and balances written into the constitution. They also want a new electoral commission formed, to act independently.

CCM has ruled Tanzania since the country gained independence in 1961, and there have been lingering calls for a new constitution since a multi-party system was introduced in 1992. Magufuli’s predecessor Jakaya Kikwete set up an assembly to draft a new constitution in 2012. However, opposition members of the assembly accused their CCM counterparts of hijacking the process and a draft constitution was produced without consensus. In those circumstances, a proposed referendum was abandoned and preparations for the 2015 elections overtook the constitutional review process.

Outlook – Political stability minus structural reforms

CCM is still poised to shape the outcome of any constitutional review process in the foreseeable future because of its overwhelming political dominance. Significant structural reforms to the democratic process are unlikely to materialise before the 2025 elections buildup, while Suluhu is still trying to broaden her influence and CCM maintains its grip on state institutions. 

Even so, we expect the political environment to remain stable and civil liberties to continually be expressed more freely during Suluhu’s tenure than they were during Magufuli’s.   

*Photo credit: Pawel Czerwinski

We are an African-owned and managed firm delivering local knowledge supporting transformative and sustainable strategic decision-making. Do get in touch if you require assistance: advisory@songhaidvisory.com