An Easy Election Win for Ethiopia’s PM but the Real Test of Legitimacy is Beyond Ballot Box

After a long delay, the final results of Ethiopia’s poll that was held on 21st June have been announced. As predicted, incumbent Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has been elected with a massive majority for his Prosperity Party. This ends the period of limbo in which a communications vacuum from the National Elections Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) risked accusations of impropriety, during which there was an attempt for government business to continue unhindered. The result will now allow Ahmed to claim some level of long-desired legitimacy, yet this will be marred by the fact that the polls could not take place in three of the country’s ten regions, as well as the ongoing unrest in the Tigray region.

Significance – Landslide Victory

Prosperity has secured 410 of the 436 seats that were contested in what was an unsatisfactory electoral process. Voting in the Tigray, Amhara and Benishangul-Gumuz regions and parts of Oromia,  did not take place due to various security and logistical constraints. No date has been given for the vote in Tigray whilst the other regions will head to the polls in September. Regardless of the outcome of those votes, Prosperity will maintain an absolute majority as there are a total of 547 seats in the House of People’s Representatives and they have already won 410. The party that was expected to come closest to Prosperity, Ethiopian Citizens for Social Justice (Ezema)[1], emerged with only 10 seats. 

Outlook – Now the hard work begins

The election win for Ahmed and Prosperity is not surprising and changes little in the grand scheme of governance in the country. Legitimacy is something craved by Ahmed, since he was appointed PM by parliament in 2018, and although the vote was taken directly to the citizens this time, questions regarding the conduct of the polls amid the ongoing Tigray crisis remain the largest challenge to that legitimacy. Other alleged human rights crackdowns are also factors that will continue to plague Ahmed’s relations with the international community that will be key to the success of his economic liberalisation agenda. 

The (temporary) conclusion of the electoral calendar will provide an increased degree of certainty to commercial decision-makers, especially with no party yet signalling its intent to challenge the results. However, come September, the challenge will re-emerge as the difficulty of organising elections in highly restive, unstable regions will become a reality.

[1] One of the few other parties to campaign on a non-ethnic agenda.

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